Updated : 2025-11-11 22:35:42 KST
A state-run think tank in South Korea has released its latest global economic outlook for next year. The forecast has inched up, but only slightly. Our economics correspondent Kim Do-yeon explains what's behind this cautious optimism. The global economy is projected to grow by 3.0 percent in 2026, maintaining the same pace as 2025. This is according to the state-run Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, which on Tuesday released this forecast in its 2026 World Economic Outlook report. This represents a 0.1 percentage point upward revision from the institute's previous forecast made in May.
---------------
inch up 약간/조금 오르다
---------------
KIEP summarized the economic outlook for 2026 using the key phrase: "buffered slowdown amid an asymmetric world." "The 'buffered slowdown' component of the key phrase signifies that corporations and nations are partially defending against downside pressures by mitigating shocks through various responses Meanwhile, the 'asymmetric world' refers to the phenomenon where the global economy, lacking a clear common direction or momentum, exhibits divergent trends by country and sector."
-----------------
asymmetric 균형이 잡히지 않은 비대칭의
-----------------
One major downside risk to the global economy was the rapid changes in the new tariff and trade order, as uncertainty continues to loom with the U.S. tariffs' effects starting to kick in. The institute noted that the U.S. administration's implementation of bilateral tariffs has weakened the multilateral trading system. "As countries with a high dependency on trade will find it difficult to avoid pressure from reduced exports due to worsening external conditions, this uncertainty in the trade sector is one of the most significant downside risks."
-----------------
As of October 2025, the average U.S. effective tariff rate reached 17.9 percent. KIEP cited IMF projections that these high barriers will slow global trade volume growth to an average of 2.9 percent in 2025-26, down from 3.5 percent in 2024. Other downsides noted were weakened fiscal capacity in major nations, and disruptions from imbalanced investment in AI. Growth by region showed differences among some key players. The U.S. economy is forecast to grow by 1.6 percent, as the negative effects of tariff policies begin to dampen consumer sentiment.
-----------------
The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.1 percent, and Japan by 0.6 percent. Among emerging markets, China is forecast to grow at 4.2 percent, slowed by the 2025 base effect and ongoing trade conflicts. India is expected to maintain strong 6.5 percent growth while the ASEAN-5 nations are projected to grow at 4.7 percent. With global growth forecasts at a low 3.0 percent, KIEP says international cooperation is essential as the world faces a "buffered slowdown" in an "asymmetric era," where many countries have limited policy options to manage risks. Kim Do-yeon, Arirang News.
=================
영어 원문 출처 및 동영상 링크;
arirang news/Economy
https://m.arirang.com/news/view?id=289186