Sherlockian Prompt Design (4)

Sherlockian Way of Thinking

☞ How to use this chapter
For each method, read the “Scenario” carefully. Under “Your Prompt,” draft the best prompt you can. At the end of the chapter, compare with the sample prompts and design notes, and then revise your prompt once more.

5. Abduction: Elicit the Most Natural Explanation

Exercise ① Interpreting a Sudden Change in Behavior

Scenario. You run a social media account. Follower A typically leaves comments daily, but has been silent for the past week. You need to infer why.

Your Prompt:
(Write here.)

Design Note.
Ask for (1) multiple plausible hypotheses, (2) brief rationales anchored in observable user behavior, and (3) a ranked selection of the most natural explanation. This mirrors abductive reasoning: maintain competing explanations until one best fits the facts. Optionally request signals to verify each hypothesis and a confidence rating to prevent overstatement.

Exercise ② Diagnosing Why a Cultural Event Underperformed

Scenario. A local festival drew 60% fewer attendees than expected. The program was solid and the venue reasonably accessible. You need to identify the most likely reasons.

Your Prompt:
(Write here.)

Design Note.
Guide the model to separate constraints (strong program, accessible venue) from explanatory variables (timing, weather, competing events, channel mix, pricing). Prompt for 3–4 candidate causes tied to analogous cases and require evidence paths (what data would support each). This favors the most natural narrative over speculative certainty.

Exercise ③ Explaining Divergent Content Performance

Scenario. Two videos on the same channel have similar topics and quality. One has 100,000 views, the other only 10,000. Explain the discrepancy.

Your Prompt:
(Write here.)

Design Note.
Have the model compare surface parity (topic, length, quality) with latent drivers (thumbnail salience, CTR, viewer retention cliffs, publish timing, algorithm exposure, title specificity). Require ranked hypotheses plus testable diagnostics (e.g., A/B thumbnails, retention curve comparison). Abduction thrives when competing stories are weighed against practical checks.

Exercise ④ Interpreting a Character’s Action in Fiction

Scenario. In your short story, the protagonist leaves the room without a word in the final scene. Readers are confused. Help them grasp the scene’s meaning.

Your Prompt:
(Write here.)

Design Note.
Ask for two or more interpretations with internal warrants (foreshadowing, motif, prior dialogue). Request implications for theme and character arc and an indication of which reading is most natural given the text’s cues. This keeps interpretation grounded, not arbitrary.

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5. Abduction — Sample Prompts

Exercise ① Sudden behavior change
Sample Prompt.

“User A used to comment once a day but has shown no activity over the past seven days. Propose three plausible reasons for this change. For each, add a brief rationale grounded in real user behavior, then identify the single most natural and likely explanation.”

Design Note.
Multiple hypotheses → concise rationales → selection by plausibility. This scaffolds abduction and prevents premature certainty.

Exercise ② Underperforming cultural event

Sample Prompt.
“Our local festival saw attendance come in 60% below expectations. The venue and program were attractive. Propose three causes that best explain the outcome, and connect each to a relevant case or analogous failure.”

Design Note.
By fixing certain variables as given, the model focuses on explanatory deltas and supports them with analogical evidence, increasing credibility.

Exercise ③ Divergent content reaction

Sample Prompt.
“We posted two videos with similar topics, length, and editing style. One has 100,000 views; the other, 10,000. Offer 2–3 reasons that most plausibly explain the gap. Consider factors such as algorithm exposure, thumbnail quality, and upload timing. Rank your explanations by plausibility.”

Design Note.
Explicit factor prompts reduce hand-waving; ranking forces discriminative judgment rather than a flat list.

Exercise ④ Interpreting a silent exit in fiction

Sample Prompt.
“Final scene: ‘He closed the door quietly and left the room. He did not look back.’ Propose two interpretations that most naturally capture the emotional and narrative meaning of this action. For each, explain what foreshadowing or context in the story would support the reading.”

Design Note.
Binding each interpretation to textual support disciplines the explanation and foregrounds narrative logic.