부동산 급등에 가계와 기업 부채경제 적신호

Real estate surge is red light for debt

한국은행이 지난해 부동산 호황에서 기업대출 81조원 가계대출 89조원 증가해 GDP의 2.2이며 부동산금융 위험도 최대 증가를 25일 밝혔다.

한국은행의 금융안정 보고서는 지난해 명목국내총생산(GDP) 대비 민간신용(가계·기업 부채잔액) 비율이 215.5%에서 18.4% 증가로 사상 최대치이다.

보고서는 부동산금융 익스포저(위험노출액)가 2천279조원으로, 2019년(2천67조원)보다 10.3%(212조) 증가하며 2018년과 2019년 7%대 증가에서 위험도의 급등을 밝혔다.

보고서는 가계신용이 지난해 7.9% 증가해 1천726조1천억원이고 기업신용은 10.1% 증가 2천153조5천억원으로, 소득대비 가계부채 비율이 175.5%로 2019년보다 13.2%포인트 높아지며 채무 부담 증가를 확인했다.

이런 가계여신 증가분 89조2천억원에서 부동산담보대출 15조9천억원 정책 모기지론 21조1천억원에 비해 전세보증 35조4천억원 증가로 40%를 차지하며 부동산 호황을 뒷받침했다.

보고서는 은행 가계대출 확대에 줄어들던 비은행 가계대출까지 지난해 하반기 증가세 전환으로 밝혀, 주택가격 상승과 부채 확대 연결을 시사했다.

보고서에서 금융권의 기업여신 증가액(+81조4천억원)의 56.0%가 부동산업 대출(45조6천억원)이며, 비은행의 부동산업 대출 증가액(+24조9천억원)이 은행 증가액(+20조6천억원) 보다 많아졌다.

부동산금융 익스포저는 가계와 부동산 관련 기업의 여신과 부동산 관련 금융투자상품 투입 자금 합계이며, 지난해 2천280조원 규모가 명목국내총생산(GDP) 대비 118.4%로, 10.7%포인트 상승했다.

보고서는 부도 위험 기업 대출은 전체 기업대출 10%가 넘고, 자영업자 중 ‘고위험가구’를 19만2천개의 76조7천억원으로 측정했다.

보고서는 지난해 자영업자의 대출이 1분기 10.0%(전년동기비), 2분기 15.4%, 3분기 15.9%, 4분기 17.3%로 급증한 반면 매출은 5.5%, 3.6%, 1.9%, 4.6% 감소하며 매출 감소를 부채 증가로 봤다. kimjc00@hanmail.net

Real estate surge is a red light for household and corporate debt economy

The Bank of Korea announced on the 25th that in the real estate boom last year, corporate loans increased by 81 trillion won and household loans by 89 trillion won, which is 2.2 of GDP and the biggest increase in real estate financial risk.

The Bank of Korea's Financial Stability Report shows that the ratio of private credit (the balance of household and corporate debt) to the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) last year increased from 215.5% to 18.4%, a record high.

The report revealed that the real estate finance exposure (risk exposure) was 2,279 trillion won, an increase of 10.3% (212 trillion won) from 2019 (2,67 trillion won), and a sharp rise in risk at 7% increase in 2018 and 2019.

According to the report, household credit increased 7.9% last year to 177.2 trillion KRW, and corporate credit increased 10.1% to 255.3 trillion KRW, and the ratio of household debt to income was 175.5%, 13.2 percentage points higher than in 2019, and the debt burden increased. Confirmed.

This increase in household loans from 89.2 trillion won to 15.9 trillion won in real estate mortgage loans, compared to 21 trillion won in policy mortgage loans, accounted for 40% with an increase of 35 trillion won in cheonsei guarantees, supporting the real estate boom.

The report revealed that non-bank household loans, which had declined due to the expansion of bank household loans, turned to an increase in the second half of last year, implying a link between rising housing prices and increasing debt.

In the report, 56.0% of the increase in corporate loans (+81.4 trillion won) in the financial sector is real estate loans (45 trillion won), and the increase in real estate loans from non-banks (+24.9 trillion won) is the increase in banks (+20 trillion won). More than 100 billion won).

Real estate financial exposure is the sum of loans and real estate-related financial investment products input by households and real estate-related companies. Last year, the amount of 2,280 trillion won was 118.4% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP), up 10.7 percentage points.

According to the report, bankruptcy-risk corporate loans accounted for more than 10% of total corporate loans, and among self-employed people, “high-risk households” were measured at 7.6 trillion won.

The report shows that last year's self-employed loans surged to 10.0% in the first quarter, 15.4% in the second quarter, 15.9% in the third quarter, and 17.3% in the fourth quarter, while sales declined 5.5%, 3.6%, 1.9%, and 4.6% in sales. The decline was viewed as an increase in debt.

Household debt, financial stability, corporate real estate loan, private credit, real estate, real estate finance, debt economy, risk exposure, exposure, the Bank of Korea