코로나V증시 가계 여유자금 2배로 해외투자 10배 폭등

Overseas investment surges 10 times

코로나의 지난해 2월 말부터 1년간 한국과 미국 증시가 부채 투자에 V자반등하며 가계 여유자금이 2배로 커졌다.

미국의 2월말 신용융자 잔액이 8140억달러(910조원)으로 연간 49% 급증이며, 한국은 지난 1년간 가계부채로 173조5천억원을 동원해, 지분증권과 투자펀드로 80조5천억원을 투자해 2019년의 –3조8천억원에서 76조7천억원이 됐다.

한국은행 지난해 자금통계는 투자펀드 제외하고도 가계에서 국내외 주식에 83조3천억원을 투입하며, 해외주식에 20조1천억원 투입으로 1/4를 차지했다.

가계의 증시투입은 출자지분(국내주식) 등 63조2천억원에 차입자금 173조5천억 중 금융기관에서 171조7천억원을 빌렸다.

미 증시의 S&P500지수가 지난해 53% 급등에 대해 미 연준(Fed)의 공격적 통화 부양 과 신용투자(빚투)가 기여했다고 월스리트저널이 7일 보도했다.

WSJ은 지난해 시작된 '모든 투자상품의 랠리'는 부채투자가 부추긴 측면이 있었다면서 금융위기 당시 버블 붕괴 직전인 2007년 이후 가장 큰 폭으로 주식 담보의 신용융자가 커졌다고 진단했다.

한국의 가계는 지난해 예금이 역대 최대 규모로 42조4천억원이 증가하고, 증시투자에 83조3천억이 동원되며 173조원의 부채투자가 증시와 부동산 폭등에 기여한 것으로 보인다.

가계(비영리단체 포함) 여유자금(순자금운용)이 지난 1년 100조원 급증해 192조2천억원이 되며 2019년(92조2천억원)의 2.1배가 됐다.

여유자금(순자금운용액)은 운용자금에서 조달자금을 뺀 것으로, 한국은행은 지난해 '가계'(개인, 개인사업자, 비영리단체)의 순자금운용액을 192조1천억원이라 밝혀, 미국 등 해외주식 투입액이 20조원로 부채투자의 1/4을 넘어섰다.

외환보유액은 4,461억3천만달러로 2월말(4,475억6천만달러)보다 14억3천만달러가 감소했고, 한국은행은 5일 “미 달러화 강세에 따라 외화자산의 달러화 환산액이 줄었다”고 밝혔다.

해외주식투자에 따른 ‘외화예금’은 지난해 연속 증가해 지난 3월 외화예금 잔액이 900억3천만달러로 2월보다 6억5천만달러 증가했다.

코로나 초기이던 지난해 3월 삼성증권이 ‘V반등’ 보고서를 냈고, 청와대가 이어 ‘V반등’을 밝혔고, 이어 동학개미와 서학개미가 나왔다. kimjc00@hanmail.net

Overseas investment surges 10 times as households' surplus funds doubled during the Corona V stock market

For a year from the end of February of last year of Corona, Korean and US stock markets rebounded in a V-shape for debt investment, and households' surplus funds have doubled.

At the end of February, the balance of credit loans in the U.S. rose 49% annually to 814 billion dollars (910 trillion won), and Korea mobilized 17.3 trillion won in household debt over the past year, investing 80 trillion won in equity securities and investment funds in 2019. It was from -3.8 trillion won to 76 trillion won.

Bank of Korea's financial statistics last year accounted for a quarter of households investing 83 trillion won in domestic and overseas stocks, and 20 1.1 trillion won in overseas stocks, excluding investment funds.

Households' stock market investment was 63.2 trillion won, including investment shares (domestic stocks), and 173 trillion won in borrowings, borrowing 177.1 trillion won from financial institutions.

The Walls Lit Journal reported on the 7th that the Fed's aggressive monetary stimulus and credit investment (debt investment) contributed to the surge in the S&P 500 index of the US stock market last year by 53%.

WSJ diagnosed that the'rally of all investment products' that started last year had a side that was encouraged by debt investment, and that stock-backed credit loans have grown the most since 2007, just before the collapse of the bubble at the time of the financial crisis.

For Korean households, deposits increased by 42.4 trillion won last year, the largest ever, and 83.3 trillion won was mobilized to invest in the stock market, and debt investment of 173 trillion won seems to have contributed to the stock market and real estate surge.

Surplus funds (net fund management) for households (including non-profit organizations) surged 100 trillion won in the past year to 199.2 trillion won, which is 2.1 times that of 2019 (92 trillion won).

The surplus fund (net fund management amount) is the operating fund minus the financing, and the Bank of Korea revealed that the net fund management amount of'households' (individuals, private businesses, non-profit organizations) last year was 192.1 trillion won. The stock input amounted to 20 trillion won, exceeding a quarter of debt investment.

Foreign exchange reserves amounted to $461.3 billion, a decrease of $1.43 billion from the end of February ($45.66 billion), and the Bank of Korea announced on the 5th that "the dollar-denominated amount of foreign currency assets decreased due to the strong US dollar."

“Foreign currency deposits” from overseas stock investment increased in a row last year, and the balance of foreign currency deposits in March was $90 billion, an increase of $650 million from February.

In March of last year, during the early days of the coronavirus, Samsung Securities issued a “V rebound” report, followed by the Blue House, followed by a “V rebound,” followed by Donghak ants and Seohak ants.

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