투자집중 반도체 수출전선 후순위로 미국발 인플레 조짐

Signs of inflation from the US as a subo

통화 공급이 집중된 반도체가 실제 수출 실적에서 4월(29% 전년동기비 증가)보다 5월(26%, 20일간)에 줄어들며 미국 의존도가 커져 미국발 인플레이션 조짐이다.

4월 수출은 전년동기비 1.2% 증가(512억달러)이고 수입은 33.9% 증가(508억달러)에서 증가세에서 반도체의 주도력이 약해지고 미국의존 승용차와 석유류가 주도했다.

5월 수출에서 증가(전년동기대비)는 승용차(146.0%), 석유제품(149.7%), 무선통신기기(64.0%), 자동차부품(221.9%), 정밀기기(42.6%) 주도에서 반도체(26.0%)가 후위로 됐다.

3월은 한국은행의 수출물량지수에서 3.5% 상승(전년동기비)하며 반도체수출물량지수가 11.2% 상승의 최대치가 됐고, 금액으로 7.1% 상승했다.

반면 4월 수출물량에서 자동차부품(98.4%) 석유제품(94.3%) 가전제품(90.6%) 승용차(75.2%) 무선통신기기(69.2%) 선박(14.4%)에 밀려난 반도체(29.0%)를 거쳐, 5월에 자동차부품(221.9%) 석유제품(149.7%) 승용차(146.0%) 무선통신기기(64.0%) 정밀기기(42.6%)의 증가세 순위가 정해졌다.

대기업 1분기 순익에서 코로나 비대면 수혜의 네이버가 영업이익이 전년(2920억원)보다 줄어 2880억원이나, 기아차가 91% 현대차 45.5% 영업이익 급등으로 대비됐다.

지난해 1분기 영업적자 1조원의 GS칼텍스는 올 1분기에 영업이익 6300억원으로 급반전했고, SK에너지 에쓰오일 현대오일뱅크 등은 전년동기 영업적자 5천억~1조원에서 영업이익 5천억원 으로 급등하며 물가상승을 예고했다.

원유 급등은 서부텍사스산원유(WTI)가 1개월여에 26.01%(48.52달러→61.14달러) 폭등이고, 브렌트유는 4월물이 이미 배럴당 64.34달러로 코로나 이전 지난해 1월21일(64.59달러)로 올라섰다.

반도체 투자 주도를 트럼프 체제에서 선언했던 대만은 3월 반도체 수출액이 전년동기비 33.3% 급증 537억 달러이고, 대만의 수출의 13개월 연속 증가를 이끌고 있다.

미국-중국 반도체 대치 속에서 중국·홍콩에 수출이 3월에 전년동기비 34% 증가이고, 1분기 에는 전년동기대비 47% 증가이다.

미국은 3월에 1조9천억달러 경기부양 추가에 이어, 2021회계연도(10월부터) 투자 확대로 6조달러 규모 예산안을 가동해 2019회계연도 지출 4조4700억달러 대비 40% 초과 공급으로 인플레 용인 정책에 들어갔다.

대외경제정책연구원(KIEP)은 미국 경제성장률을 11일 기존 2.8%에서 6.6%로 3.8%포인트 급상향하며 한국 수출의 미국 집중 의존을 예고했다.

KIEP는 유럽 성장률은 기존보다 0.7%p 올려 4.4%로, 일본 전망치는 3%로 1%p 상승시켰고, 중국 0.2%p 올려 8.6% 성장으로 전망했다.

5월 수출 증가세(전년동기대비)가 자동차부품(221.9%) 승용차(146.0%) 석유제품(149.7%)에서 미국(87.3%)이 주도자가 되고 이어 유럽연합(78.1) 일본(30.6%)이 수출주도국이며 중국(25.2%)과 중동(-14.0%)이 후순위가 됐다.

수입은 원유(198.8%) 승용차(59.4%)가 주도하고 반도체(17.8%) 기계류(15.5%) 증가세에서, 중동(146.8%) 미국(47.0%) 호주(32.8%) 일본(25.2%)이 주도국이고 베트남(20.5%)과 수입 승용차의 유럽연합(15.7%) 뒤에 중국(13.1%)이 하위로 밀리며, 미 달러화 지배력이 커졌다.

정부의 반도체 지원전략이 계속되며 개인투자자는 올해 초부터 14일까지 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스를 각각 22조69억원, 3조2천630억원 순매수했다.

4월 26일부터 5월 14일까지 3주간 'KRX 반도체지수'(9.76%) 'KRX 정보기술지수'(8.45%) 하락하고, 주가는 삼성전자(3.26%) SK(10.57%) 하락이다.

외국인은 3주간 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스를 각각 3조7천665억원, 9천602억원 순매도했고,반도체 장비업체 티씨케이(-23.39%) 원익IPS(-9.73%) DB하이텍(-9.03%) 리노공업(-7.02%) 고영(-9.35%) 한미반도체(-8.11%) 등이 연속 급락했다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

Signs of inflation from the US as a subordinate to the investment-intensive semiconductor export front

Semiconductors, where the money supply is concentrated, declined in May (26%, 20 days) from April (29% YoY increase) in actual export performance, leading to increased dependence on the US, which is a sign of inflation from the US.

In April, exports rose 1.2% ($51.2 billion) year-on-year, and imports rose 33.9% ($50.8 billion), which led to the weakening of semiconductors' leadership, led by US-dependent passenger cars and petroleum products.

In May, exports increased (YoY), led by automobiles (146.0%), petroleum products (149.7%), wireless communication devices (64.0%), automobile parts (221.9%), and precision equipment (42.6%), leading to semiconductors (26.0%). %) became the back-end.

In March, the export volume index of the Bank of Korea rose by 3.5% (compared to the same period of the previous year), and the semiconductor export volume index reached the maximum of 11.2%, and rose by 7.1%.

On the other hand, semiconductors (29.0%), which were pushed back by automobile parts (98.4%) petroleum products (94.3%) home appliances (90.6%) passenger cars (75.2%) wireless communication devices (69.2%) ships (14.4%) in April exports After that, in May, the ranking of the increase in automobile parts (221.9%) petroleum products (149.7%) passenger cars (146.0%) wireless communication devices (64.0%) and precision equipment (42.6%) was decided.

In the first quarter of large corporations, Naver, who benefited from the non-face-to-face corona, declined from the previous year (292 billion won) to 280.8 billion won, while Kia Motors' operating profit surged 91% and Hyundai Motors 45.5%.

GS Caltex, which had an operating loss of KRW 1 trillion in the first quarter of last year, sharply turned to an operating profit of KRW 630 billion in the first quarter of this year. It foretold inflation.

The surge in crude oil is that West Texas crude oil (WTI) surged 26.01% (48.52 dollars → 61.14 dollars) in one month, and Brent oil was already at 64.34 dollars per barrel on January 21 last year (64.59 dollars) before the coronavirus. Climbed up.

In Taiwan, which declared the leadership of semiconductor investment under the Trump regime, semiconductor exports in March surged 33.3% year-on-year to 53.7 billion dollars, leading Taiwan's export growth for the 13th consecutive month.

Amid the confrontation with US-Chinese semiconductors, exports to China and Hong Kong increased by 34% YoY in March and 47% YoY in 1Q.

The U.S. added $1.9 trillion in economic stimulus in March, followed by a $6 trillion budget with increased investment in fiscal year 2021 (from October), inflation due to supply exceeding 40% of fiscal year 2019 expenditure of $4.47 trillion. Entered the Yongin policy.

The Institute for Foreign Economic Policy (KIEP) announced that the US economic growth rate surged 3.8 percentage points from 2.8% to 6.6% on the 11th, predicting the intensive dependence of Korean exports on the US.

KIEP forecasts Europe's growth rate rose 0.7%p to 4.4%, Japan's forecast rose 1%p to 3%, and China's 0.2%p increase to 8.6%.

In May, export growth (YoY) was led by the US (87.3%) in automobile parts (221.9%) passenger cars (146.0%) and petroleum products (149.7%), followed by the European Union (78.1) and Japan (30.6%). Leading countries were China (25.2%) and the Middle East (-14.0%).

Imports were led by crude oil (198.8%) and passenger cars (59.4%), followed by semiconductors (17.8%) and machinery (15.5%) growth, followed by the Middle East (146.8%) US (47.0%) Australia (32.8%) and Japan (25.2%). China (13.1%) is behind the country, Vietnam (20.5%) and the European Union (15.7%) of imported passenger cars, and the dominance of the US dollar has increased.

As the government's strategy to support semiconductors continues, individual investors net purchases of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for 22.6.9 billion won and 3,263 trillion won, respectively, from the beginning of this year to the 14th.

From April 26th to May 14th, the'KRX Semiconductor Index' (9.76%) and'KRX Information Technology Index' (8.45%) fell for three weeks, and the share price fell at Samsung Electronics (3.26%) and SK (10.57%).

For three weeks, foreigners net sold Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for KRW 3,766.7 billion and KRW 9602 billion, respectively, and semiconductor equipment maker TCK (-23.39%) Wonik IPS (-9.73%) DB Hitech (-9.03%) Reno Industries (-7.02%) Goyoung (-9.35%) and Hanmi Semiconductor (-8.11%) fell continuously.

Ant investment, economic stimulus, US inflation, US dependency, semiconductor export, semiconductor equipment stock, semiconductor special, Samsung Electronics stock price, oil dependency, foreign investors