내수진작 부작용 생산·소비·투자 하락에 ‘구축효과’

As a side effect of boosting domestic de

산업생산이 정부의 공급확대 경기부양에 일시 상승했다가 하락하는 추세가 반복되며 구축효과에 빠진 것으로 보인다.

전 산업생산은 올해 1월(-0.5%) 감소했지만 2월(2.0%), 3월(0.9%)에는 두 달 연속 오름세를 보였다. 4월(-1.3%)과 5월(-0.2%) 감소했다가 6월(1.6%) 일시 증가세에서 7월(-0.6%)과 8월(-0.2%)로 2개월 연속 추락했다.

8월에 설비 투자는 -5.1% 감소로 코로나 초기이던 지난해 5월(-5.7%) 이후 가장 큰 감소이다.

소비 감소는 소매 판매가 8월에 전월보다 0.8% 줄면서 감소폭이 3차유행의 5월(-1.8%) 이후 3개월 만에 최대다.

통계청 지표에서 8월이 생산과 소비, 투자 등 3개 분야가 모두 감소했고, 5월에도 생산 -0.2%, 소비 -1.8%, 설비투자 -2.6%로 모두 감소였다.

설비투자 감소는 5월 –2.6%에서 8월 –5.1%로 급감이고, 8월 반도체 재고가 전월대비 15.5% 급증했다.

구축효과(crowding-out effect, 驅逐效果)는 내수 진작을 위한 정부지출 확대가 민간투자를 위축하고 이자율을 높이는 부작용으로, 정부지출 확대가 커질수록 내수 진작 효과가 하락하며 생산 소비 투자에서 ‘트리플 감소’를 보이고 있다.

광공업 생산은 8월에 전월보다 0.7% 감소하고 반도체(3.5%) 생산은 증가이나 재고 15.5%로 더 커졌고, 가정과 직결되는 전기장비(-5.1%) 금속가공(-5.0%) 생산은 큰 폭 감소했다.
제조업 생산은 반도체, 자동차 등에서 증가이나 전기장비, 금속가공 등에서 감소해 결국 – 0.4%(전월대비) 감소세이다.
제조업 출하는 전월보다 2.5% 감소하고 내수 출하와 수출 출하가 각각 2.0%, 3.1% 하락해 수출 감소가 커졌다.

제조업 재고는 반도체(15.5%), 석유정제(20.3%), 1차 금속(8.4%)에서 큰 폭 상승하며 전체 4.9% 증가했다.

제조업의 재고/출하 비율은 112.3%로 전월보다 8.0%p 상승으로 코로나 초기인 지난해 5월(8.8%p) 이후 최대 상승 폭이다.
설비투자는 특수산업용 기계 등 기계류(-4.3%) 선박 등 운송장비(-7.7%) 투자가 감소를 주도하며 8월에 –5.1%(전월대비)가 되면서 지난해 5월(-5.7%)로 되돌아갔다.

정부 부양책이 집중된 소매 판매는 전월보다 0.8% 감소하며 코로나 3차유행의 5월(-1.8%) 이후 최대로 커졌다.

소비 감소는 준내구재(1.8%, 의류)에서 증가이나, 비내구재(-2.0%, 식음료 등) 내구재(-0.1%, 승용차 등) 판매 감소가 더 컸다.

소비 감소는 슈퍼마켓 및 잡화점(-6.0%, 전년동월대비) 대형마트(-4.2%) 판매가 줄고, 전문소매점(+6.7%) 백화점(+14.8%) 승용차·연료소매점(+3.0%) 판매가 증가해 양극화가 뚜렷해졌다.
통계청은 “반도체 재고가 많이 늘었지만 안 팔리고 쌓아둔 게 아니라 생산, 수출 시차 문제로 늘어난 것으로 보고 있다. 우려할 상황은 아니며 전반적으로 재고가 많지 않다”고 30일 밝혔다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

As a side effect of boosting domestic demand, production, consumption, and investment fell at the same time, resulting in crowding-out effect

Industrial production appears to have fallen into the construction effect as the trend of rising temporarily and then falling due to the government's supply expansion and economic stimulus is repeated.

All industrial production declined in January (-0.5%) of this year, but showed an upward trend for two consecutive months in February (2.0%) and March (0.9%). After declining in April (-1.3%) and May (-0.2%), it fell for two consecutive months from a temporary increase in June (1.6%) to July (-0.6%) and August (-0.2%).

In August, facility investment fell by -5.1%, the biggest decline since May last year (-5.7%), during the early stages of the coronavirus.

The decrease in consumption was the largest in three months since the third wave of May (-1.8%) in May as retail sales fell 0.8% MoM in August.

According to the statistics of the National Statistical Office, all three sectors decreased in August, including production, consumption, and investment, and in May, production decreased by 0.2%, consumption by 1.8%, and facility investment by -2.6%.

Facility investment fell sharply from -2.6% in May to -5.1% in August, and semiconductor inventories surged 15.5% MoM in August.

The crowding-out effect (驅逐效果) is a side effect that the expansion of government spending to stimulate domestic demand shrinks private investment and raises interest rates. ' is showing.

Mining and industrial production fell 0.7% in August from the previous month, semiconductor (3.5%) production increased but inventories increased to 15.5%, and household electrical equipment (-5.1%) and metal processing (-5.0%) production fell sharply Manufacturing production increased in semiconductors and automobiles, but decreased in electrical equipment and metal processing, resulting in a decrease of 0.4% (MoM). Manufacturing shipments fell 2.5% MoM, while domestic shipments and export shipments fell 2.0% and 3.1%, respectively, resulting in a sharp decline in exports.

Manufacturing inventories rose sharply in semiconductors (15.5%), petroleum refining (20.3%), and primary metals (8.4%), up 4.9% overall.

The manufacturing inventory/shipment ratio was 112.3%, an increase of 8.0%p from the previous month, the largest increase since May of last year (8.8%p), the early stage of the corona virus. Equipment (-7.7%) investment led the decline, falling to -5.1% (Mom) in August, returning to May of last year (-5.7%).

Retail sales, which were concentrated on government stimulus measures, fell 0.8% from the previous month, the largest since May (-1.8%) during the third wave of the coronavirus.

The decrease in consumption increased in semi-durable goods (1.8%, clothing), but sales of non-durable goods (-2.0%, food and beverage, etc.) and durable goods (-0.1%, passenger cars, etc.) decreased more.

The decrease in consumption was attributed to a decrease in sales at supermarkets and general stores (-6.0%, compared to the same month of the previous year), a decrease in sales at large marts (-4.2%), and an increase in sales at specialty retail stores (+6.7%), department stores (+14.8%) and automobile and fuel retail stores (+3.0%). The polarization has become clearer. The National Statistical Office believes that “semiconductor inventories have increased a lot, but it is not because they are not sold or piled up, but because of the time lag between production and export. It is not a situation to be concerned about, and overall there is not much inventory,” he said on the 30th.

Supply expansion, crowding-out effect, domestic demand promotion, private investment, semiconductor inventory, production/consumption/investment decline, polarization, government spending increase, triple decrease