외상거래 최대 급증 가계부채 1862조 GDP 91%

Highest surge in foreign transaction his

외상거래 잔액이 지난해 106조3천억원으로 역대최대 증가폭의 가계부채 1862조에 국제신용평가사 무디스가 21일 신용평가 협의를 시작했다.

외상잔액인 한국은행 판대신용 통계는 지난해 4분기에 전기대비 5.7%(5조7천억원) 늘고, 전년동기대비 10.8%(10조4천억원)의 역대 최대폭 증가이다.

가계대출과 판매신용을 합친 가계신용 잔액은 1862조1천억원으로, 지난해 3분기 말 명목 국내총생산(GDP)의 91.2%를 차지했다.

가계부채 증가폭은 지난해 134조1천억원(7.8%) 늘어 전년(127조3천억원) 보다 커지며 2002년 이후 역대 2위 증가폭이다.

지난해 대출증가는 상반기에 집중되며 주택가격과 주식 상승에 연결됐고, 하반기에는 정부의 대출규제 정책에 의해 비은행으로 옮겨 주택담보대출이 3조1천억원 증가하며 104조9천억원을 기록했다.

가계대출 중 주택담보대출 2조4천억원은 지난해 4분기 13조4천억원(1.4%) 3분기(20조8천억원) 증가이고, 전년동비 71조8천억원(7.9%) 증가해 전년도 증가분(67조8천억원) 보다 증가폭이 커졌다.

주택담보대출은 지난해 13조4천억원 증가의 982조4천억원이고, 판매신용(결제전 카드사용액) 잔액은 전분기 대비 5조7천억원 증가해 106조3천억원으로 역대 최대 기록이다.

한국은행의 가계신용 지난해 잔액 1862조1천억원은 3분기 1844조9천억, 2분기 1808조2천억, 1분기 1764조1천억, 2020년 4분기 1727조9천억, 3분기 1681조8천억, 2분기 1637조3천억의 증가세이다.

신용평가사 무디스는 17조 추경이 확정된 21일 국가신용 등급 평가 연례 협의에 들어가 28일 까지 진행한다.
무디스는 지난해 한국의 국가신용 등급 전망에 기존 ‘Aa2(안정적)’ 유지하며 “국가채무가 역사적으로 높은 수준에 있다. 장기간 유지해온 한국의 재정 규율 이력을 시험할 수 있다”고 밝혔다.
신용평가사 피치는 1월에 한국 국가신용 등급 ‘AA-’ 유지를 발표하며 “한국 정부의 적극적 재정지출 및 재정적자 용인 기조가 강화를 보인다. 이는 고령화에 따른 장기 지출 소요가 있는 상황에서 중기적으로 신용 등급 압박 요인으로 작용할 수 있다”고 밝혔다.

신용평가사 스탠더드앤드푸어스(S&P)는 지난해 11월 “단기적으로 가계부채 및 부동산 시장, 중장기적으로 사회적 격차와 고령화·통일 비용 대비 재정 여력을 관심있게 관찰하고 있다”고 밝혔다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

Highest surge in foreign transaction history Household debt 1862 trillion won 91% of GDP

Moody's, an international credit rating agency, started credit rating negotiations on the 21st, with the balance of foreign transactions reaching 106.3 trillion won last year, the largest increase ever in household debt of 1862 trillion won.

The Bank of Korea's bank credit statistics, which is the balance of accounts receivable, showed a 5.7% (5.7 trillion won) increase from the previous quarter in the fourth quarter of last year, and the largest increase in history by 10.8% (10.4 trillion won) compared to the same period of the previous year.

The balance of household credit, including household loans and sales credit, stood at 1862.1 trillion won, accounting for 91.2% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of the third quarter of last year.

The increase in household debt increased by 134.1 trillion won (7.8%) last year, which is larger than the previous year (127.3 trillion won), the second largest increase in history since 2002.

Last year, the increase in loans was concentrated in the first half and was linked to housing prices and stock increases, and in the second half of the year, mortgage loans increased by 3.1 trillion won to 104.9 trillion won by moving to non-banks according to the government's loan regulation policy.

Among household loans, 2.4 trillion won in mortgage loans increased by 13.4 trillion won (1.4%) in the fourth quarter of last year, and 20.8 trillion won in the third quarter (20.8 trillion won) in the same period last year. 800 billion), the increase was larger.

Mortgage loans amounted to 982.4 trillion won, an increase of 13.4 trillion won last year, and the balance of sales credit (card usage before payment) increased by 5.7 trillion won from the previous quarter to 106.3 trillion won, a record high.

The Bank of Korea’s household credit balance last year was 1862.1 trillion won, 1844.9 trillion won in the third quarter, 1808.2 trillion won in the second quarter, 1764.1 trillion won in the first quarter, 1727.9 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2020, 1681.8 trillion won in the third quarter, 2 It is an increase of 1637.3 trillion won in the quarter.

Moody's, a credit rating agency, will begin the annual consultation on the national credit rating evaluation on the 21st, when the 17 trillion supplementary budget is confirmed, and proceed until the 28th. Moody's maintained the previous 'Aa2 (stable)' for Korea's sovereign credit rating outlook last year and said, "The national debt is at a historically high level. It can test Korea's long-standing history of fiscal discipline." Fitch, a credit rating agency, announced that it would maintain Korea's national credit rating of 'AA-' in January. looks like "This could act as a credit rating pressure factor in the medium term in a situation where there is a long-term spending requirement due to an aging population," he said.

Standard & Poor's (S&P), a credit rating agency, said in November last year, "We are paying close attention to the household debt and real estate market in the short term, and the social disparity in the mid- to long-term and financial capacity against the cost of aging and unification."

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