D램 시스템반도체 컴퓨터 수출물가하락 14년내'최고'

Export price drop ‘highest’ in 14 years,

지난해 연간 기준 수입물가지수 상승률 25.9%에 수출물가지수 상승률 16.6%로 2008년의 36.2%, 21.8% 이후 14년 만에 최고치가 됐다.

수입물가 상승은 지난달(12월) 전월보다 6.2% 하락이나, 수출물가지수가 전월대비 6.0% 하락으로 물가 하락세에도 수입가 상승이 수출을 압도하고 있다.

12월에 수입물가지수는 석탄·석유제품(-9.2%), 화학제품(-4.4%), 컴퓨터·전자및광학기기(-4.3%), 제1차금속제품(-3.2%) 비율로 하락이나, 수출은 석탄·석유제품(-13.6%), 화학제품(-6.2%), 컴퓨터,전자및광학기기(-5.2%) 식으로 하락폭이 더 크다.

한국은행이 13일 공개한 수출물가는 석탄및석유제품(-13.6%) 화학제품(-6.2%) 등 공산품(-6.0)에서 하락 비율에 비해, 수입물가는 자본재와 소비재도 각각 2.9%, 3.0%씩 하락 정도가 낮다.

국제 원자재 하락세에 광산품의 원재료가 전월대비 9.9% 하락했으나 석탄및석유제품, 화학제품 등 중간재는 전월대비 4.7% 하락에서 수출물가 하락이 크다.

수출물가 하락은 12월에 경유(-15.5%), 제트유(-14.5%), 휘발유(-12.4%), 자일렌(-10.3%), 에틸렌비닐아세테이트(-12.4%), D램(-6.1%), 시스템반도체(-5.3%) 등이 주도했다.

지난해 12월 수출물가지수(한국은행 2015년 기준)는 118.03으로, 11월(125.51)보다 6.0% 낮아지면서 두 달 연속 하락해 전월대비 하락폭에서 금융위기 2009년 4월(-6.1%) 이후 13년 8개월 만에 가장 컸다.

더구나 2021년 12월과 비교하면 무려 3.1% 더 높게 하락세이다.

원유 수입 하락세에 의한 수출물가 하락은 석탄·석유제품(-13.6%), 화학제품(-6.2%)보다 컴퓨터·전자·광학기기에서 -5.2% 하락 수치가 한국 경제에 구조화됐다.

12월 수입물가 하락은 11월보다 6.2% 낮아졌으나 국제 유가가 11월 평균 86.26달러(두바이유·배럴당)에서 12월 77.22달러로 10.5% 급락한 결과로 보인다.

물가 동향은 지난해 환율이 연간 기준으로 12.9% 상승하고 국제유가가 39.1% 상승했다.

지난해 말(12월) 수출 물가 상승이 석탄·석유제품, 화학제품에 집중됐고 수입 물가도 원재료 석탄·석유제품, 화학제품 중간재에 한정돼 무역적자 개선이 더 어려워진 것으로 보인다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

Export price drop ‘highest’ in 14 years, led by DRAM system semiconductor computer

-by Kim Jong-chan, political economy reporter

Last year, the annual rate of increase in the import price index was 25.9% and the rate of increase in the export price index was 16.6%, the highest in 14 years after 36.2% and 21.8% in 2008.

The rise in import prices last month (December) fell 6.2% from the previous month, but the export price index fell 6.0% from the previous month.

In December, the import price index fell as a percentage of coal and petroleum products (-9.2%), chemical products (-4.4%), computer, electronic and optical equipment (-4.3%), and primary metal products (-3.2%). However, exports show a larger drop in the form of coal and petroleum products (-13.6%), chemical products (-6.2%), and computers, electronic and optical devices (-5.2%).

Export prices disclosed by the Bank of Korea on the 13th were 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively, for capital goods and consumer goods, compared to the rates of decline for industrial goods such as coal and petroleum products (-13.6%) and chemical products (-6.2%). The percentage drop is low.

While raw materials for mineral products fell 9.9% compared to the previous month due to the decline in international raw materials, intermediate goods such as coal, petroleum products and chemical products fell 4.7% compared to the previous month, showing a large drop in export prices.

In December, the decline in export prices was diesel (-15.5%), jet fuel (-14.5%), gasoline (-12.4%), xylene (-10.3%), ethylene vinyl acetate (-12.4%), and DRAM (-6.1%). %) and System Semiconductor (-5.3%).

In December of last year, the export price index (as of 2015 by the Bank of Korea) was 118.03, down 6.0% from November (125.51), falling for two consecutive months. It was the largest in 8 months.

Moreover, compared to December 2021, it is a whopping 3.1% higher decline.

As for the decline in export prices due to the decline in crude oil imports, the -5.2% decline in computer/electronic/optical devices is more fatal to the Korean economy than coal/oil products (-13.6%) and chemical products (-6.2%).

The decline in import prices in December was 6.2% lower than in November, but it seems to be the result of a 10.5% drop in international oil prices from an average of 86.26 dollars (Dubai oil per barrel) in November to 77.22 dollars in December.

In terms of price trends, the exchange rate rose 12.9% on an annual basis last year and international oil prices rose 39.1%.

At the end of last year (December), the increase in export prices was concentrated in coal, petroleum products, and chemical products, and import prices were limited to raw material coal, petroleum products, and intermediate goods for chemical products, making it more difficult to improve the trade deficit.

DRAM, international oil price, trade deficit, import price, import price index, export price, system semiconductor, raw material, Bank of Korea, exchange rate