노동자 고령중심에 상용과 임시 동일 구조 개편

Reorganization of the same temporary

코로나 공급우위 경제로 고령 노동이 집중 증가하며 상용근로와 임시근로자가 동일 비중으로 노동구조 개편이 시작됐다.

제조업은 2019년부터 지속해 줄고 보건 복지 행정 국방 등 국고가 집중되는 분야만 취업자가 증가하는 고용 구조가 정착된 것으로 보인다.

취업자 증가가 전월보다 60대 40만8천명 20대 13만명 50대 1만3천명에 비해, 감소는 30대 17만명 40대 8만5천명에 집중되는 구조도 코로나 재정지원의 결과로 보인다.

통계청의 3월 취업자는 코로나의 지난해 3월 19만5천명 감소이후 처음으로 31만4천명(1.2%, 전년대비)이 증가해 2692만3천명이 됐으나. 실업자 121만5천명은 전년대비 3만6명(3.0%) 증가로 실업난이 가중됐다.

실업률은 4.3%로 코로나 최악이던 지난해 3월보다 0.1%p 상승했고, 최고 실업률은 보였던 2019년 3월(4.3%)과 동일해져 경기침체기에 강제 경기부양에도 불구하고 구조적 실업의 장기화로 보인다.

실업의 지속 증가는 전통적 고용시장에서 집중 발생해, 도소매업(-16만8천명·-4.8%), 협회·수리·개인서비스(-7만1천명·-5.9%), 숙박·음식(-2만8천명·-1.3%) 등 집중되며 도소매업이 2019년 6월부터 22개월 연속 감소하고 있어 재정투입에 의한 이커머스 유통으로 경제구조 개편의 희생자가 됐다.

중공업 퇴조는 경기부양 재정이 집중됐으나 제조업 취업자에서 2018년 4월부터 21개월 연속 하락하며 3월에 전년동기비 1만1천명(-0.3%) 감소가 확인됐다.

제조업 취업자는 유일하게 코로나 이전 지난해 1월(8천명) 증가하다가 코로나의 3월(-2만3천명)으로 13개월 연속 감소로 퇴조이다.

유일하게 반등한 청년층(15~29세) 취업자는 정부 육성 분야인 교육서비스·정보통신업 중심에 14만8천명 증가이나, 지난해 2월부터 계속 줄어들다가 처음으로 지난달 증가했다.

교육서비스업은 지난해 2월(-9천명·-0.5%)부터 감소하다가 이번 3월에 3만2천명(1.8%) 증가로 반전했다.

취업 증가는 보건복지서비스(17만1천명·7.6%), 공공행정·국방·사회행정(9만4천명·9.0%), 건설업(9만2천명·4.7%) 등에 국한되며 상용과 임시 취업이 유사 수준이라서 노동의 양극화가 커지고 있다.

IMF는 한국 인구 고령화의 부채 위험에 대해 고령화로 부채 부담이 폭발하지 않도록 향후 정부지출 계획을 면밀하게 검토할 필요가 있다고 밝혔다.

IMF의 안드레스 바우어 한국미션단장은 13일 “헬스케어 비용과 고령화 관련 부담이 지속적 우려를 야기한다”며 “고령화가 고착화하면서 노동자의 안전망을 강화하고 직업훈련 늘리며 유연성 확대 등의 노동시장 개선이 필요하다”고 블룸버그 인터뷰로 밝혔다.

공급우위에 따라 경직성 경비 증가에서 재정적자와 증세에 의해 공권력 강화가 노동 시장과 충돌을 시작했다. kimjc00@hanmail.net

Reorganization of the same temporary structure as commercially based on the elderly of workers

Due to the corona supply-dominant economy, the labor structure reorganization began with the same proportion of regular and temporary workers as the intensive increase of old labor.

The manufacturing industry seems to have continued to decline from 2019, and an employment structure in which the number of employed has increased only in areas where national treasury is concentrated, such as health, welfare, administration, and defense seems to have been established.

Compared to the previous month, the increase in employment is 408,000 people in their 60s, 130,000 people in their 20s, 13,000 people in their 50s, and the decrease is concentrated to 170,000 people in their 30s and 85,000 people in their 40s.

The number of employed by the National Statistical Office in March increased 314,000 (1.2%, compared to the previous year) for the first time after Corona's decrease of 195,000 in March last year, to 26923,000. The unemployment crisis was aggravated due to an increase of 36,000 (3.0%) compared to the previous year for 1215,000 unemployed.

The unemployment rate was 4.3%, up 0.1%p from March last year, which was the worst of the coronavirus, and the highest unemployment rate is the same as in March 2019 (4.3%), which appears to be a prolonged structural unemployment despite forced economic stimulus during the recession.

The continued increase in unemployment is concentrated in the traditional job market, with wholesale and retail business (-168,000 people, -4.8%), associations, repairs, personal services (-71,000 people, -5.9%), accommodation and food (- 28,000 people, -1.3%), etc., and the wholesale and retail business has been declining for 22 consecutive months since June 2019, making it a victim of economic restructuring due to the distribution of e-commerce through fiscal input.

The decline in the heavy industry's economic stimulus was concentrated, but the number of workers in the manufacturing industry declined for 21 consecutive months from April 2018, with a decrease of 11,000 people (-0.3%) compared to the same period last year in March.

The only number of workers in the manufacturing industry increased in January last year (8,000 people) before Corona, but declined for 13 consecutive months in March (-23,000 people) of Corona.

The only young people (ages 15-29) who rebounded increased by 148,000, mainly in the education service and information and communications industries, which are the government's fostering fields, but continued to decline from February of last year and then increased last month for the first time.

The education service industry declined from February of last year (-9 thousand people, -0.5%), but turned to an increase of 32,000 people (1.8%) this March.

Employment growth is limited to health and welfare services (171,000, 7.6%), public administration, defense, social administration (94,000, 9.0%), and construction (92,000, 4.7%), and regular and temporary employment. Because of this similar level, the polarization of labor is increasing.

The IMF said that it is necessary to carefully review future government spending plans to prevent the debt burden from exploding due to the aging of the Korean population.

On the 13th, the head of the Korean Mission, Andres Bauer of the IMF, said, “The burden of health care costs and aging continues to raise concerns. ”Said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Depending on the supply advantage, strengthening of public power began to clash with the labor market due to the increase in rigid expenses and the fiscal deficit and increase in taxation.

Economic recession, rigid security, supply dominant economy, labor structure reform, workers, old-age labor structure, unemployment rate, temporary workers, youth employment, corona financial support,IMF