JP Morgan: The "Bitcoin Bible"
JP Morgan이 기관투자가들에게만 공개한 보고서. Zerohedge는 Bitcoin Bible이라는 이름을 붙였다.
JPMorgan Publishes The “Bitcoin Bible”
71페이지에 달하는 이 리포트는 다양한 분야의 JP모건 전문가들이 참여해 현 암호화폐 시장에 대한 통찰과 미래 사회 혁명의 잠재력 등을 분석했다. 세부적으로는 암호화폐의 기술력과 적용범위, 한계점 등이 리포트에 기술돼 있다.리포트는 “암호화폐는 탈중앙화와 지방분권화, 익명성, P2P네트워크를 바라는 사용자들에게 다양한 형태로 손쉽게 살아남을 수 있다”며 “암호화폐 기반 기술은 지불 시스템이 낙후된 지역에서 발전할 수 있다”고 밝혔다.리포트는 암호화폐의 미래 대안화폐 잠재력에 대해서는 부정적으로 봤다. 여러 장애요소를 감안할 경우 주요 거래수단으로 쓰이기보단 현재의 화폐를 대체하는 수준에 그친다는 것이다.
나아가 지불 수단으로서 블록체인 기술의 잠재력을 감안하더라도 중앙은행이란 공신력을 갖춘 화폐와 경쟁하는 형태로 발전하긴 힘들 뿐더러, 암호화폐가 광범위한 영향력을 갖게 될 경우 중앙은행은 거대한 수익과 법정통화 역할의 독점, 금융 생태계 보호 등을 위해 경쟁에 나설 것이라 봤다.리포트는 “암호화폐는 지난 몇 년 간의 높은 수익성과 주요 자산군과의 낮은 상관성으로 인해 글로벌 채권이나 주식 포트폴리오를 다변화 할 잠재력을 갖췄다”고도 했다.
JP Morgan이 발행한 보고서의 정식 명칭는 “Decrypting Cryptocurrencies: Technology, Applications and Challenges”. 개인적으로 필요하신 분은 email: fintech.telegraph@outlook.com.
Executive Summary
Introduction
J.P. Morgan researchers from across a wide range of expertise analyze various aspects of Cryptocurrency (CC) to gain insight on this market and its potential evolution in this report. CCs’ extremely rapid growth, and then fall, both in terms of number of CCs and prices and their challenge to the current financial infrastructure, are forcing all market participants to closely monitor and understand this new market.
Cryptocurrencies are virtual currencies that are created, stored and governed electronically by an open, decentralized, cryptography system. CCs can be used to exchange money, to buy certain goods/services or as an investment. There are over 1,500 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of some $400bn as of February 8, 2018, with Bitcoin being the largest representing a third of the market according to CoinMarketCap.
Launched in early 2009, Bitcoin (BTC) is the dominant cryptocurrency with a market cap of $140 billion (representing one-third of the CC market) and nearly 17 million BTC units in circulation (capped at 21 million). Bitcoin was the first major cryptocurrency and has spawned many competing CCs and technologies, many of which still fall back to Bitcoin as a support currency. Bitcoin itself has split into two cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, to improve liquidity.
Technology
Cryptocurrencies are the face of the innovative maelstrom around the Blockchain technology that is bringing both massive price volatility and a constant trial-and-error of new product try-outs and failures.
CCs are unlikely to disappear completely and could easily survive in varying forms and shapes among players who desire greater decentralization, peer-to-peer networks and anonymity, even as the latter is under threat. The underlying technology for CCs could have the greatest application in areas where current payments systems are slow, such as across borders, as payment, reward tokens or funding systems for other Blockchain innovations and the Internet of Things, as well as parts of the underground economy.
Applications
There are over 1,500 CCs with a market cap of $400bn. Transactions in the three largest CCs average $550bn per month and come mostly from individuals. Ownership is highly concentrated. The opportunity set around direct CC trading appears relatively limited for banks, while the two Bitcoin futures recently launched are seeing only $140mn in daily trading.
Blockchain saw its first expression through Bitcoin – the first CC – but is more likely to ultimately see its greatest application outside of CCs across other financial and non-financial transactions, even as Blockchain itself looks set to evolve fast as the market learns about what works best.
There is the potential for increased usage of Blockchain in cross-border payments, settlement/clearing/collateral management as well as the broader world of TMT, Transportation and Healthcare but only where any cost efficiencies offset regulatory, technical and security hurdles.
Hedge funds have been moving into this market making up most of the 175 CC funds but AUM remains only a few billion dollars. Asset managers are experiencing limited success in bringing products to market and have not been able to launch CC funds or ETFs without support from the SEC or major distributors.
While about half of the early CC transactions happened in the underground economy, the share of this is declining, with investing and speculation now taking a much larger share.
Challenges
It will be extremely hard for CCs to displace and compete with government-issued currencies, as dollars to euros and yuan are virtual natural monopolies in their regions and will not easily give up their seigniorage profits.
CCs are experiencing heightened volatility and will face challenges from both technology (such as rising mining costs and hacking) and regulators who are concerned about anti-money laundering and investor protection, as CC payments are irreversible and there is no recourse.
Security concerns have mounted in Bitcoin exchanges as hackers have infiltrated a number of CC exchanges generating large losses, while regulators are challenging anonymity.
