The last missing piece

for China to become a true space power

The intense rivalry between the US and China is reshaping the global geopolitical landscape. The rivalry is extending everywhere, even beyond Earth’s atmosphere and into space. The outer space, which has been a domain of scientific exploration since the end of the Cold War, is once again turning into a military domain.

Space technology is crucial to maintain secure communications, access real-time intelligence, coordinate military operations, and conduct precision strikes. The importance of space tech will keep growing as new adaptations, such as autonomous spacecraft and AI-operated self-learning satellites, become a reality. Whoever controls and operates space assets will have a great strategic advantage in future conflicts.

China has been investing heavily in its own military satellites in order to ensure that its army doesn’t have to rely on foreign systems that could be disrupted by the US. The Beidou is China’s alternative to GPS, and it is one of China’s many achievements that granted it sovereign space defense capabilities.

China’s influence in space is gradually evolving from defensive measures to offensive tools. They are building a global network of satellites by building ground stations in the Global South states. With these infrastructures, China can do more than just create a counterbalance to the US’s threats. The US is no longer the only country that can project its power across the world. This could affect the fundamentals of the US-China competition. Specifically, China could use space to change its status quo, militarily surrounded and isolated.

Nevertheless, despite its remarkable achievements in recent years, there is still one missing component that China must obtain to surpass the US, and that missing component is money.

Yes, China is one of the most resourceful countries in the world. But it doesn’t mean that China can pour infinite resources into space. Due to rising risks from oversupply, high levels of debt, and an aging population, there are other priorities here on Earth that China needs to inject cash into immediately. China’s newly built and planned satellite constellations require massive funds to monitor, maintain, and periodically replace these systems.

The US is generating a lot of profit from the commercial use of space tech, which keeps the US’s space industry running. It would be hard for China to do the same because China cannot access the world’s largest market, the US and its allies, which account for nearly 80% of the world.

Unlike emerging countries that welcome China for investment and tech support, advanced spacefaring countries are starting to see China’s expansion as a big threat. The US-led intelligence alliance, although it seems fragile than it once was, is collaboratively working together on space surveillance and intelligence sharing. The West will undoubtedly attempt to slow down China by disrupting its supply chain on critical space components that China is still dependent on for international trade.

In short, China has become a great space power that can pose a real challenge to the US’s superiority in space. However, China’s space capability is still constrained by a lack of commercial viability. Yes, the US model also has flaws. But it is superior to that of China on self-adjusting adaptability and business viability thanks to its commercial industries.

Therefore, China’s attempt to exploit the Moon wouldn’t matter much as people are concerned. Instead, we should stay alarmed if China can replicate NASA’s success in space commercialization. Space needs a lot of money, and nobody can keep pouring money forever, not even China. In short, it needs its own version of SpaceX to sustain its space activities. Otherwise, it could end up becoming another Soviet Union, regardless of its technological breakthroughs.