All great things take time

In 2020, when the world was in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, ironically the world was overflown with bold visions of a better and brighter future. People dreamed of a new world transformed by digital healthcare, the metaverse, blockchain, autonomous vehicles, remote work, and commercial space travel. Somehow, all these visions converged on the same target year, 2024.

Now, 2024 is past behind us. The results fell short of the high expectations set in 2020. Most of these visions have either been delayed, scaled down, or even abandoned in humiliation. Autonomous vehicles remain entangled in the endless regulatory debates. Digital healthcare and space tourism are still far from being part of everyday life. The metaverse has lost momentum that even its biggest supporter, Mark Zuckerberg, is stepping back in doubt. Yes, there has been some technological achievement but it has fallen far short of the revolutionary transformation that we anticipated back in 2020.

This gap between overblown promises and underwhelming results is not merely a consequence of technical difficulty. Its root causes lie deeper in human nature itself: impatient, short-sighted, and greedy.

All great things take time. But people hate waiting, especially the investors. Recently, I have come to think that perhaps 4 years is the maximum period that people can stay patient and focused. Looking back to 2020, those innovators proclaimed that 4 years would be enough to make their dreams come true. On those promises, they secured funding, won generous slices of government budgets, and became public idols.

It is common for presidential terms and government policy roadmaps to span four to five years as well. Perhaps, our social decision-making cycles are designed in response to the psychological cycle that runs on a four-year rhythm.

Capitalism fuels innovation by connecting wild dreams with money. However, problems arise when people misuse the system to manipulate expectations for easy money.

Recently, I have seen a lot of beautiful promises targeting 2030. Surprisingly, some of the loudest voices today are from the same ones who promised a miracle by 2024. Although they are selling different dreams now, their patterns and tactics remain eerily familiar.