923화. 출생혁명 대한민국
대만 출산율 0.695 - 세계 최저
인구 붕괴 전에 경제부터 붕괴한다.
대만도, 한국도, 세계도
http://v.daum.net/v/20260406150459539
1. 저출산으로 세계를 보라
저출산, DDF로 세계를 보라.
한국, 미국, 유럽, 중국, 세계가 보인다.
세계는 저출산 반백 년.
저출산은 인류사 초유, 극악, 전인미답, 진행형이다.
세계는 여전히 여섯 가지 중대한 착시에 갇혀 있다.
1. 저출산은 더 이상 인구 감소 문제 아니다.
문명 붕괴의 문제다.
2. 저출산은 더 이상 개인이나 일국의 문제 아니다.
인류 공동의 문제다.
3. 저출산은 더 이상 미래 문제가 아니다.
현재 문제다.
4. 저출산은 더 이상 특정 분야 문제 아니다.
정치, 경제, 사회, 문화, 교육, 국방, 외교... 전 분야를 붕괴시킨다.
어느 분야도 예외 없다.
5. 저출산은 더 이상 변수가 아니다.
상수다.
6. 저출산은 연속적이며 불가역적이다.
출생혁명 아니면 멈추지 못한다.
저출산 결과는 50년 후에 본격적으로 시작된다.
지금이다.
먼저 경제부터 붕괴한다.
그다음 자본주의와 자유민주주의 체제가 붕괴한다.
그다음 인구가 붕괴한다.
그다음 문명이 붕괴한다.
경제 붕괴는 주식시장 붕괴, 금융 붕괴, 공급망 붕괴의 수순으로 이어진다.
공급망 붕괴는 식량과 에너지 공급 붕괴로 이어진다.
연속, 불가역이다.
저출산이 연속, 불가역이기 때문이다.
일국이 아니라 세계가 그러하다.
논점은 발생 여부 아니라, 무엇이 먼저 오느냐다.
인구사망공식
DDF converts
a total fertility rate into population size
one, two, and three generations later.
SOUTH KOREA — TFR 0.7
SEOUL — TFR 0.5
USA — TFR 1.6
GERMANY — TFR 1.3
THE UNITED KINGDOM — TFR 1.4
FRANCE — TFR 1.6
ITALY — TFR 1.18
JAPAN — TFR 1.2
CHINA — TFR 1.0 (Shanghai 0.6)
SWEDEN (1) — TFR 1.5
SWEDEN (2) — 1.5
Population Trend
Current: 51 million (100%)
One generation later: 17 million
(34% = 0.7 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 6 million
(11% = 34% × 34%)
Three generations later: 2 million…
(4% = 34% × 34% × 34%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
To return to the previous population level, the total fertility rate must be 6.3.
Every woman would need to give birth to 6.3 children.
It is impossible.
By far the world’s No.1 in low birthrate —
breaking its own world record.
Population Trend
Current: 10 million (100%)
One generation later: 2.4 million
(24% = 0.5 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 570,000
(5.7% = 24% × 24%)
Three generations later: 130,000…
(1.3% = 24% × 24% × 24%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
The capital of South Korea
This, too, is a world No. 1 — by a crushing margin.
Population Trend
Current: 350 million (100%)
One generation later: 266 million
(76% = 1.6 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 202 million
(58% = 76% × 76%)
Three generations later: 153 million…
(44% = 76% × 76% × 76%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
A nation built on immigration.
Population growth long assumed to be permanent.
Yet the arithmetic shows decline.
Population Trend
Current: 83 million (100%)
One generation later: 51 million
(62% = 1.3 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 32 million
(38% = 62% × 62%)
Three generations later: 20 million…
(23% = 62% × 62% × 62%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
Population Trend
Current: 69 million (100%)
One generation later: 45 million
(66% = 1.4 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 30 million
(44% = 66% × 66%)
Three generations later: 20 million…
(29% = 66% × 66% × 66%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
Population Trend
Current: 69 million (100%)
One generation later: 52 million
(76% = 1.6 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 40 million
(58% = 76% × 76%)
Three generations later: 30 million…
(43% = 76% × 76% × 76%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
Population Trend
Current: 59 million (100%)
One generation later: 33 million
(56% = 1.18 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 18 million
(31% = 56% × 56%)
Three generations later: 10 million…
(17% = 56% × 56% × 56%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
Population Trend
Current: 124 million (100%)
One generation later: 70 million
(57% = 1.2 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 40 million
(32% = 57% × 57%)
Three generations later: 22 million…
(18% = 57% × 57% × 57%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
Population Trend
Current: 1.4 billion (100%)
One generation later: 670 million
(48% = 1.0 ÷ 2.1)
Two generations later: 320 million
(23% = 48% × 48%)
Three generations later: 150 million…
(11% = 48% × 48% × 48%)…
Continuous. Irreversible.
The total population decline will be delayed by decades,
but the outcome is inevitable with this total fertility rate.
It’s simple math.
Even after decline, the population scale remains enormous.
Low birthrate patterns are broadly similar across the world.
Low birthrate is not merely population decline.
It is civilizational collapse.
1. Continuity
Even if the fertility rate remains at 0.7 in the next generation, population continues to decline.
The rate is the same, but the population base becomes smaller each generation.
2. Irreversibility
First, to restore a fertility rate of 2.1 — the level required to maintain population —
all causes of low birthrate must be eliminated.
The world has tried everything for decades. It has failed.
Second, even if fertility returns to 2.1, the population that was never born cannot be recovered.
Third, to return a reduced population to its previous size, the fertility rate would need to reach 6.3.
Each woman would need to give birth to 6.3 children.
That is nine times higher than 0.7.
It is impossible.