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Maritime Hegemony War - English version

Does History Repeat Itself? From Spain’s Invincible Armada to Modern Naval Conflicts

In 1588, the winds of the Atlantic altered the course of history. Spain’s Invincible Armada—the most formidable fleet of its time—set sail to conquer England. However, a combination of the English navy’s strategic maneuvering and violent storms led to its downfall. This battle was more than a mere military defeat; it reaffirmed the notion that maritime supremacy dictates global power structures. In the aftermath, England emerged as the dominant naval force, paving the way for the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the British Empire.

Today, we are witnessing the dawn of another struggle for maritime dominance. A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) titled "Ship Wars: Confronting China’s Dual-Use Shipbuilding Empire"warns of a modern-day reenactment of the Armada’s defeat—this time, with shipyards and trade routes replacing cannons and warships as the primary battlegrounds.

China’s Naval Expansion Through Shipbuilding

The report underscores China’s strategic use of its commercial shipbuilding industry as a foundation for military expansion. Chinese shipyards are not only producing cargo vessels and tankers but also constructing dual-use ships capable of transitioning to military functions when needed—a strategy known as Military-Civil Fusion.

This is not merely an economic policy but a calculated effort to assert global maritime control. Just as Spain sought to dominate the seas in the 16th century, China is now systematically establishing its hold over global waters. Spain used its formidable navy and economic influence to challenge England; similarly, China is leveraging its shipbuilding industry to secure its maritime supremacy.

China has already surpassed South Korea and Japan to dominate the global shipbuilding market. As of 2024, China accounted for approximately 71% of global ship orders, with a total of 49.2 million CGT (Compensated Gross Tons)—a 58% increase from the previous year. In high-value shipbuilding, China also leads, commanding 78.5% of global orders for environmentally friendly vessels, reflecting the nation’s technological advancement and commitment to green innovation. This dominance is not just an economic achievement—it is a stepping stone toward expanding China’s strategic military influence.

Securing Strategic Maritime Bases Through the Belt and Road Initiative

China is further solidifying its global maritime reach through strategic control of key ports and naval bases under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Some of the most critical locations include:

Djibouti – China’s first overseas military base, crucial for exerting influence over Africa and the Middle East.

Gwadar, Pakistan – A deep-water port developed with Chinese investment, providing a vital trade and military outpost.

Hambantota, Sri Lanka – A port leased to China, expanding its foothold in the Indian Ocean.

Kyaukphyu, Myanmar – A Chinese-backed port, enhancing access to the Indian Ocean.

Mauritius, Seychelles, Maldives – Small island nations where China is strengthening port infrastructure for strategic influence.

China’s approach mirrors historical patterns. Just as Britain’s naval dominance enabled it to control global trade and geopolitics in the 19th and 20th centuries, China’s modern maritime expansion aims to reshape the world’s economic and military landscape.

The Flow of Technology: A Critical Factor

History teaches us that naval supremacy is closely linked to technological leadership. Spain’s naval power was challenged by the superior shipbuilding advancements of the Dutch and the British. Similarly, the transfer of naval technology played a key role in Japan’s rise as a formidable naval power in the early 20th century.

CSIS warns that Western technological collaboration with Chinese shipyards is inadvertently accelerating China’s maritime capabilities. Just as European shipbuilding expertise helped Japan establish a powerful fleet in the early 1900s, today’s technology transfers could be strengthening China’s future naval dominance. The crucial question is: Where is technology flowing today, and what does it mean for the future balance of power at sea?

How Should the U.S. and Its Allies Respond?

In response to China’s expanding maritime influence, the CSIS report outlines a three-pronged strategy:

1. Blocking Dual-Use Shipbuilding Expansion

- Restricting technology transfers and investments that enhance China’s military capabilities.

- Increasing scrutiny of collaborations between Western firms and Chinese shipyards.

2. Reducing Market Dominance

- Strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. and allied shipbuilders through subsidies and incentives.

- Diversifying supply chains to decrease reliance on Chinese shipyards.

3. Enhancing Naval and Shipbuilding Infrastructure

- Modernizing and expanding shipbuilding facilities in the U.S. and allied nations.

- Accelerating naval fleet expansion to counterbalance China’s growing influence.

If these measures fail, the 21st-century equivalent of the Invincible Armada may not meet the same fate as its 16th-century predecessor. Instead, it could successfully reshape global maritime power dynamics.

Who Controls the Seas, Controls the World

Recent tensions over the Panama Canal, a critical chokepoint connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, highlight the increasing strategic competition between China and the U.S. The sale of Panama Canal port operations by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings to a U.S.-led consortium led to political backlash in China. President Xi Jinping reportedly expressed anger over the transaction and ordered an investigation into ways to halt the deal. This underscores how maritime control remains a focal point in 21st-century great-power competition.

History indeed repeats itself. Just as England countered Spain’s maritime ambitions in the 16th century through strategic innovation and naval supremacy, today’s global power struggles are playing out across shipbuilding contracts, trade routes, and military bases. While economic battles over tariffs and trade receive much attention, a silent war for naval dominance is unfolding worldwide. The outcome will determine the future balance of power—just as it did in the age of sail.