수입가 급등의 11월 소비감소 산업생산 등락 고착

Decrease in consumption in November due

11월에 수입가격(33.4%)이 수출가격(20%)보다 더 오르며 수입금액지수가 전년대비 42.8% 상승하고 소비감소에 산업생산의 증가와 감소 반복이 고착화됐다.

한국은행의 무역수지 지표는 수출금액지수(140.66)가 27.1% 상승해 최고치이지만 반도체 수출 43.7% 급등에 따른 편중 결과를 보여준다.

정부의 위드코로나 소비진작에 의한 11월 산업활동은 소비가 전월대비 1.9% 감소하며 ,자동차(11.3%) 반도체(4.5%) 중심 생산 증가에 자동차 생산이 올 1월(12.6%) 이후 10개월만의 최대 증가폭을 보였다.

11월에 설비투자 10.9% 증가는 반도체 업계의 대규모 증설에 의존해 경기호황기인 2014년 11월(12.0%) 이후 최대 증가폭이 반도체에 집중됐다.

전 산업생산(농림어업 제외) 지수는 114.4(2015년)로 전월대비 3.2% 증가이나 수입물량 7% 증가에 수출물량이 5.9% 증가했다.

통계청의 전산업생산은 1월(-0.5%) 2월(2.0%) 3월(0.9%) 4월(-1.3%) 5월(-0.2%) 6월(1.6%) 7월(-0.7%) 8월(-0.1%) 9월(1.1%) 10월(-1.9%) 11월(3.2%)의 증가와 감소 반복이 지속되고 있다.

수입 급증에 두바이유는 84.9% 폭등하고 천연가스 80% 상승으로 지수 42.8% 급등이고, 수출은 반도체 수출이 43.7% 급증하며 지수가 27.1% 상승했다.

소비감소는 산업생산 증가에도 소매판매가 1.9% 감소하며, 8월(-0.8%)이후 3개월만에 다시 감소세가 되고, 지난해 7월(-6.1%) 이후 15개월만의 최대 감소폭을 보였다.위드코로나의 11월 전격 시행에도 의복 등 준내구재(-5.7%) 가전제품 등 내구재(-3.2%) 판매 감소에 화장품 등 비내구재(0.4%) 판매만 늘었다.

11월 소비증가에 의해 미국이 상품수지 978억달러 적자로 역대 최대 증가를 보이며, 상품 수출 감소(전월대비 33억달러 2.1%)에 1천547억달러, 수입 4.7%(113억달러) 증가의 2천524억달러를 기록했다.

홍남기 부총리는 30일 페이스북으로 "전산업 생산(3.2%)이 지난해 6월 이후 17개월 만에 가장 큰 폭 증가 등 대부분 주요 지표 크게 개선됐다"며 광공업생산 5.1% 급증에 대해 "차량용 반도체 공급 차질 완화 등으로 자동차 생산에 크게 증가한 가운데 반도체와 정보통신기술(ICT) 주력 업종 생산이 호조세 보이며 3개월 이어진 감소분 완전 회복 모습"이라 밝혔다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

Decrease in consumption in November due to a surge in import prices and industrial production up and down

In November, the import price (33.4%) rose more than the export price (20%), and the import value index rose 42.8% from the previous year, and the increase and decrease of industrial production were fixed in response to the decrease in consumption.
The Bank of Korea's trade balance index showed that the export amount index (140.66) rose 27.1% to the highest level, but the result was biased due to a 43.7% surge in semiconductor exports.
Industrial activity in November, driven by the government's With Corona consumption promotion, saw a 1.9% decrease in consumption compared to the previous month, and an increase in automobile production (11.3%) and semiconductors (4.5%). showed the largest increase in
The 10.9% increase in facility investment in November depended on the large-scale expansion of the semiconductor industry, and the largest increase since November 2014 (12.0%) during the economic boom was concentrated on semiconductors.
The index of all industrial production (excluding agriculture, forestry and fisheries) was 114.4 (2015 = 100), up 3.2% from the previous month, but exports increased by 5.9% due to a 7% increase in imports.
The total industrial production of Statistics Korea was January (-0.5%) February (2.0%) March (0.9%) April (-1.3%) May (-0.2%) June (1.6%) July (-0.7%) %) August (-0.1%) September (1.1%) October (-1.9%) November (3.2%) repeated the increase and decrease.
Due to the surge in imports, Dubai oil soared 84.9% and natural gas rose by 80%, leading to a 42.8% increase in the index.
As for the decrease in consumption, retail sales decreased by 1.9% despite the increase in industrial production, and it began to decrease again in 3 months after August (-0.8%), and showed the largest decrease in 15 months since July of last year (-6.1%). Even after the Corona virus took effect in November, sales of semi-durable goods such as clothes (-5.7%) and durable goods such as home appliances (-3.2%) decreased, only non-durable goods such as cosmetics (0.4%) increased.
In November, the U.S. posted a record deficit of $97.8 billion in the goods balance due to consumption increase, the largest increase in history. recorded
Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki on Facebook on the 30th said, "The production of all industries (3.2%) has improved significantly, including the largest increase in 17 months since June last year. While automobile production increased significantly due to easing, etc., production in the main industries such as semiconductors and information and communication technology (ICT) was showing a strong recovery, showing a complete recovery from the three-month decline.”

Fixed fluctuations, trade deficit, semiconductor concentration, industrial production, consumption decrease, consumption promotion, import price, export price, with Corona, Nam-ki Hong