구글의 무인자동차 전략은 어딜향하는가? (영문)
Anything can be happened!
Auto-driving era has been started already. As of first step, Motor companies developed smart-cruise-control system, advanced-smart-cruise-control system and active-cruise-control system for assisting driver's convenience on driving situation. All these technologies should have a condition that human-being have a controlability of wheel, accelerator and brake of the car. It is partly supporting fuction.
On the other side, tesla go for pursuit perfect auto-driving system, named 'auto pilot'. They have a goal that the vehicle bring passengers to their destination without human-driving. Tesla's way is definitely innovative way of auto-driving technology.
If we could look back to 10 years ago, we can recognize Auto-driving industry is quite resemble smartphone industry's initial stage. In that period, feature phone companies like Samsung, LG, Nokia, Sony are approaching smartphone market passively. It looks similar to Motor company's attitude of Auto-driving technology.
However as we already know, Apple was trying to make 100% new smartphone on zero base. We call it 'innovation'. Then we can have a curiosity of 'what is a strategy of google's Auto-driving industry?' Google I/O 2018 show us their vision of Auto-driving industry couple days ago, I want to dig more of it with my own opinion.
1. Scanning with various sensor technology
Google's auto-driving car has,
- LIDAR((Light Imaging Detection and Ranging): Mounted on the top roof of the car and scans the area in a radius of 60 meters by rotating sensors. It create a dynamic, 3 dimensional map of near.
- VIDEO CAMERA: Mounted near the real-view mirror. It detects traffic lights and any moving object.
- POSITION ESTIMATOR: Mounted on rear wheel. It measures car's position on the map
- RADAR(Radio Detection and Ranging): Radar sensor are positioned on front and rear bumper. Those measures distances to various obstacles and give a clue for managing vehicle's speed.
About Auto-driving vehicle's sensing & scanning technology, Elon musk announced strong opinion that LIDAR is not required. Maybe he thinks video camera & image recognition combination will be more powerful, so it can cover up LIDAR's role in scanning. Also heavy and huge size of LIDAR system structure hurts vehicle's design too. It looks so bad. Maybe those are the reasion why Elon musk doesn't like LIDAR.
Excluding LIDAR system can be dangerous idea. And usually debate of new technology meets up and stuck with risk issues. So I think until video camera & image recognition combination is proved perfectly, LIDAR is necessary for the safety of passengers, even it looks ugly.
In that perspective, I agree with Google's way on Scanning and sensing technology.
2. Test bed for auto-driving system
As we know, google's auto-driving car is not for sale. It is working on only WAYMO company. And that is the biggest difference with Telsa. Tesla started with for sales vehicle on public directly. Because of that, Tesla encountered troublesome. Many people noticed auto-pilot system had car accidents and there was serious victims.
Of course I am sure of 'Auto-pilot' system reduce car accident in total, however normal people usually focus on a new victims only. It calls a halo effect. In that perspective, google's limited sample test with WAYMO can be better way. And the test method of WAYMO is similar to Android's early stage strategy. (Of course early Smartphone industry and Auto-driving industry is different, they look similar in some way)
Google tested android system with T-Mobile G1 with HTC. That was limited sample test too. And Google could avoid critical product and system issuses on public. Even there were lots of weakness of the system. They rapidly improved it. Now many people think android system's quality is almost same level with iOS. (I don't mean those are exactly same level.)
3. Who is best partner for manufacturing?
Like smartphone industry, Google needs to meet manufacturer as a partner. Google already co-work with motor companies on infotainment system business. Base on the partnership, Google can try to extend their business position on all of electronic computing system. I expect that some of global motor companies take Google's hand in early stage. (It didn't happen on early stage of smartphone industry. but maybe motor companies have lesson learn of it)
I choose 3 candidates.
- Toyota/Lexus: They focus on hybird and hydrogen energy car. Toyota has prime technology of power train. Especially they has AISIN SEKI Co.,Ltd. They established auto-driving tech company as a subsidiary company, but no one knows that can be successful solution for toyota.
- FCA: FCA group is stucked. They are in deep and dark tunnel and need to find the way out. Google can be the bright for them. Because Chrysler is American motor company, partnership with google can be successful like T-Mobile with android. Partnership with 3rd or 4th positioned company for new technology adaption for new IT system is kind of a trend. It makes business easily for Huge IT company like Google. Because largest market share company usually doesn't move actively.
- Hyundai/Kia: They are similar to Toyota group. Focused on hybird and hydrogen energy car, and recently try to make high performance vehicle. Hyundai is not evaluated best level on vehicle technology, but they have huge market share and supply chain on global.
We also can expect co-work with google as a alliance level. Auto-driving technology alliances are already exist.
4. Will tesla take Apple's role in auto-driving industry? and what abour Apple?
As I mentioned, tesla has similar position of Apple in auto-driving industry. Like Apple did, They developed all of software on zero-base and manufacture hardware too. They cover up all of vertical level integration of auto-driving industry. Also like Apple covers device repair business on their own, tesla manages recharging system infra on their own too.
Also I think motor companies like Mclaren can do the role of TSMC & Foxconn in auto-driving industry. Mclaren is very nice option for Apple. They have high level power train technology in super car industry. And also their brand is on top position. Prestige brand can be harmonized with Apple's target market in auto-driving industry. And Tesla is already far in front of Apple in auto-driving.
This is core reason Tesla will get a competitive position against Google like Apple has been that role in smartphone industry. But there are some differences. For example, Google needs reference device manufacturer partnership like Samsung, LG and HTC for smarphone but in auto-driving industry, they does not.
5. What will be different with Android & Google's auto-driving system?
- As I mentioned Google's auto-driving system doesn't need reference vehicle. Because Car's Product life cycle is much longer than Smartphone's. It means there is no time for waiting for verification of reference vehicle in auto-driving industry. So we can easily guess that Google can spread their auto-driving system in one time and develop it with motor companies in tight relationship with them.
- 100% pure open source auto-driving system like AOSP(Android Open Source Project) is not needed. Motor industry does manufature more complex product than smartphone industry, so there is higher entry barrier than smartphone company. I think there is less chance to be a new star like xiaomi or oppo in auto-driving industry. AOSP helped to set up a Android camp wider against Apple. But in autodriving industry light relationship like xiaomi & AOSP is not needed. Of course Google will concentrate on their partnership and business model. The partnership will be the 'innovation'; new synergy between real driving data & IT technology on guaranteed driving system.
- There is critical difference of those two industries. In smartphone industry, user's satisfaction can be divided between device's usability and speech quality. First one is totally in charge of device maker, but second one is in charge of Telco. There is just little things that device maker can do for speech quality. Let's have a look at Motor company. Vehicle's satisfavtion consist of vehicle's usability and driving performance. And all of it is in charge of motor company. If Google could make solid partnership with perfect motor company, then there is no little crack that the partnership can not cover up.
6. Will Google merge motor company?
If it is necessary, Google can try merge motor company like they merged Motorola for smartphone business. Candidate company will be required wide brand awareness, meaningful market share and acceptable level of base technology. If we could go back to the 2009, Volvo could be best candidate for it. Unfortunately Volvo was sold out to Geely. Renault/Nissan can be another nice option, but there business is very stable. Subaru can be option too. They have fascinating boxer engine technology. We need to look at Google's action carefully.
Anyway. Anything can be happened!
