SpaceX needs rivals

SpaceX is the space champion without an equal. Musk has created an exceptional value proposition that nobody comes even close to. SpaceX is the dominant source for NASA, the Pentagon, and the majority of commercial launch contracts worldwide. In 2024, it accounted for nearly 80% of the mass that the world had sent beyond Earth's orbits.

How did we end up here, relying on a single commercial company for mankind’s access to space? Well, rocket science is not easy. It takes billions of budgets and many years to develop a reliable rocket. Due to such nature of the space rocket, SpaceX has been enjoying a practical monopoly over the years especially since Western civilization banned using Russian rockets.

But it seems that things could change.

Several rocketeers are reaching the completion of their commercial rockets that are potentially comparable to SpaceX’s Falcon rockets. Rocket Lab’s Neutron, Firefly’s Alpha, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn are expected to become operational soon. Relativity Space’s Terran R and Bill Gates-backed Stoke Space’s Nova are also trying to catch up. Often severely underestimated, there is also ULA’S Vulcan rocket that is already available for sale. Despite the ongoing controversy that ULA is looking for a way out of the launch business, the company’s official stance is that it will keep investing in Vulcan so it can obtain a significant share of the global market.

Non-US players are also emerging to compete with Muk. Europe’s Ariane 6 is expanding its capacity while a number of European launch startups are expediting to enter the market capitalizing on Europe’s policies for sovereign capabilities. China is also moving fast to introduce its own reusable rockets that can compete with SpaceX on price and launch cadency hoping that it can dominate launch demand in Global South. ‘

Regardless of heating up competition, SpaceX has a significant head start and it would be difficult for anyone to dislodge SpaceX in the foreseen future. The company has built a unique set of advantages that allow it to access space cheaper, quicker, and more reliable than anyone else can.

Also, there’s the US’s recent political turbulence. It is hard to predict how it will influence the US’s space commercialization policies but it is evident that SpaceX is well positioned in response to the call for higher efficiency and less regulations.

SpaceX was the big winner of the first round of space commercialization. Could we expect a shocking twist in the second round that has just started?

I guess one thing is certain. They will fail if they just jump into the area to replicate what SpaceX has done. If you want to defeat a champion then you must have your own advantages and playbook. If these companies repeat the steps that SpaceX did 10 years ago then they will inevitably fail for sure. It’s good to see that each of them has come up with their unique niche, 3DP for Relativity Space and in-space services for Rocket Lab, and I cannot wait to see how they would pursue to differentiate from SpaceX.

To clarify, I really want these rockets to succeed – so invisible hands can finally do their job in the launch market. A proper rocketry competition will drive everyone forward faster – including SpaceX. If you are a monopoly then the quality of your product no longer matters. What matters is lobbying and marketing.

Healthy competition is what keeps everybody agile and sharp. Without it, sooner or later, we start to stagnate and eventually become obsolete, no matter how innovative we once were. Remember? Boeing was once known to be the innovative one.

Hopefully 2025 will be a year that more rockets will enter the arena and spice up the global space industry.