3%대 물가상승에 2%대 성장의 고물가저성장 진입

Entering stagflation of 2% growth with 3

올 3분기(7~9월) 소비자물가 상승률이 2.6%에 기재부가 '회복 속도 둔화'를 15일 밝혔다.

기재부는 10월 물가상승에 3%대 가능으로 진단했고, 올해 성장률 ‘4%대 예상’은 재정수입으로 인한 것이라 정부 기여도가 빠지면 실제 경제성장률 2% 수준으로 보인다.

9월 취업자는 전년보다 67만1천명 증가했으나 30대가 1만2천명 감소하고, 60대(32만3천명) 20대(20만2천명) 50대(12만4천명) 40대(1만8천명) 순으로 증가해 경제 주력 30-40대가 약화됐다.

산업별로 정부 지원의 보건·사회복지서비스업(28만명) 운수·창고업(16만3천명) 교육서비스업(9만8천명)이 증가한 반면, 시장주도의 도소매업 12만2천명 급감에 제조업 3만7천명 감소이다.

소비자물가는 9월에 2.5% 올라 4월 2.3%, 5월 2.6%, 6월 2.4%, 7월과 8월 2.6%의 상승률로 6개월 연속 2%대 중반이다.
9월 휘발유 가격은 전년동월 대비 21.0%, 경유 23.8%, 돼지고기 16.4%, 달걀 43.4% 상승했고, 상수도료와 도시가스 요금이 각각 0.9%, 0.1% 올랐다.
9월은 주거에서 전세는 2.4%, 공동주택관리비는 4.6%가 상승했다.

9월에 5대 시중은행의 가계대출은 702조8878억원으로 8월 말(698조8149억원)보다 4조729억원 증가하며 8월 증가액(3조5068억원)보다 5천억 가량 커졌다.
9월 가계대출 증가는 주택담보대출(주담대)에서 잔액 497조4174억 원으로 8월말보다 4조26억 원 증가하며, 7월(3조8237억원) 8월(3조8311억원)에 이어 연속 증가세로 주택가격 상승과 연결됐다.

8월 주택시장 매매가격 상승률은 전월(0.85%)보다 0.96% 상승했고, 전셋값은 전월(0.59%)보다 상승 폭이 더 커져 0.63% 상승했다.

경기침체는 8월부터 전(全) 산업생산이 전월대비 0.2%, 소매판매 0.8%, 설비투자 5.1% 감소로 나타났다.

설비 투자에서 8월 -5.1% 감소는 특수산업용 기계 등 기계류(-4.3%)와 선박 등 운송 장비 –7.7% 급감으로 나타났다.

전 산업생산은 정부 지출의 공공행정(+5.2%), 건설업(+1.6%)만 증가하고 광공업(-0.7%), 서비스업(-0.6%), 제조업(-0.4%) 등 전체가 감소해 정부 재정확장의 한계를 드러냈다.

물가 오름세가 지속에서 지나친 정부 재정투입 의존 실물경제 회복세가 꺾이며 경기침체와 물가상승의 스태그플레이션(스태그네이션+인플레이션) 우려가 현실화됐다.

한국경제연구원은 30-40 취업자 수가 지난 5년간 연평균 1.5% 감소하고 고용률은 0.7%p 줄며 76.2%로 OECD 38개국 중 30위라고 13일 밝혔다.

한경연은 30-40 취업자가 2015년 대비 2020년에 독일(84.9→85.8%), 일본(82.4→85.1%), 영국(83.0→85.1%), 프랑스(80.8→81.9%)로 상승했고, 고용률은 독일 85.8%, 일본 85.1%, 영국 85.1%, 프랑스 81.9%, 미국 76.6%, 한국 76.2%이라고 밝혔다.

기획재정부는 15일 '최근 경제동향'(그린북) 10월호에서 "대외적으로는 글로벌 경제회복세가 이어지고 있으나 원자재 가격 상승 등에 따른 인플레이션 우려 및 공급망 차질 등으로 회복 속도 둔화 가능성이 제기된다"고 밝혔다.

김영훈 기재부 경제분석과장은 이날 소비자물가 상승률과 관련 "지난해 10월 통신비 지원 등으로 낮았던 물가가 올해 물가 상승 요인으로 반영될 것"이라며 "태풍 등 날씨 영향이 없고 수확기가 도래하면서 농축수산물 물가는 하방 요인으로 작용하지만 작년 기저효과 및 환율, 국제유가 등을 고려하면 3%대 가능성도 배제할 수 없다"고 밝혔다.kimjc00@hanmail.net

Entering stagflation of 2% growth with 3% inflation

On the 15th, the Ministry of Economy and Finance announced on the 15th that the consumer price inflation rate was 2.6% in the third quarter of this year (July-September) and that the recovery rate is slowing.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance diagnosed the inflation rate as possible in the 3% range in October, and the “expected 4%” growth rate this year is due to fiscal revenue.

The number of employed people in September increased by 671,000 from the previous year, but 12,000 in their 30s decreased, followed by those in their 60s (323,000), 20s (202,000), 50s (124,000), and 40s (10,000). 8,000), and those in their 30s and 40s, the main economy, weakened.

By industry, the government-funded health and social welfare service industry (280,000), transportation and warehousing (163,000), and education service (98,000) increased, while the market-led wholesale and retail industry saw a sharp drop of 122,000 and the manufacturing industry saw a sharp drop of 37 thousand. thousand people is reduced.

The consumer price index rose 2.5% in September, rising 2.3% in April, 2.6% in May, 2.4% in June, and 2.6% in July and August, in the mid-2% range for six consecutive months.

In September, gasoline prices rose 21.0% YoY, diesel 23.8%, pork 16.4%, and eggs 43.4%, while water and city gas rates rose 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.

In September, Jeonse increased by 2.4% and apartment management expenses increased by 4.6%.

In September, household loans of the five major commercial banks amounted to 702,887.8 billion won, an increase of 4.72.9 trillion won from the end of August (698.814 trillion won) and 500 billion won larger than the increase in August (3.506.8 trillion won).

The increase in household loans in September increased by KRW 4.26 trillion from the end of August to KRW 497,417.4 billion in the balance of mortgage loans (main loan). The continuous increase was associated with an increase in house prices.

The rate of increase in the housing market sale price in August rose 0.96% from the previous month (0.85%), and the Jeonse price rose 0.63% as the increase was greater than the previous month (0.59%).

From August, all industrial production decreased by 0.2%, retail sales by 0.8%, and facility investment by 5.1% compared to the previous month.

In facility investment, the -5.1% decrease in August was a sharp decrease of -7.7% in machinery such as special industrial machinery (-4.3%) and transportation equipment such as ships.

In all industrial production, only public administration (+5.2%) and construction (+1.6%) of government spending increased, while all industries including mining (-0.7%), service (-0.6%), and manufacturing (-0.4%) decreased. It revealed the limits of financial expansion.

As the recovery of the real economy, which relied on excessive government fiscal input from continuous inflation, has been weakened, concerns about economic recession and stagflation (stagnation + inflation) have become a reality.

The Korea Economic Research Institute announced on the 13th that the number of 30-40 employed has decreased by an average of 1.5% over the past five years, and the employment rate has decreased by 0.7%p to 76.2%, ranking 30th among 38 OECD countries.

According to the Korea Economic Research Institute, the number of employed 30-40 increased from 2015 to 2020 in Germany (84.9→85.8%), Japan (82.4→85.1%), the UK (83.0→85.1%), and France (80.8→81.9%), and the employment rate was Germany 85.8%, Japan 85.1%, UK 85.1%, France 81.9%, US 76.6% and Korea 76.2%.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on the 15th in the October issue of 'Recent Economic Trends' (Green Book), "Externally, the global economic recovery is continuing, but there is a possibility of a slowdown in the recovery speed due to inflation concerns and supply chain disruptions due to rising raw material prices."

Kim Young-hoon, head of the economic analysis division of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, said, "Inflation, which was low due to support for telecommunication costs in October last year, will be reflected as a factor in this year's inflation." It acts as a factor, but considering the base effect last year, the exchange rate and international oil prices, the possibility of the 3% range cannot be ruled out."

3040 Employment rate, household loan, economic growth rate, high growth, low inflation, inflation, facility investment, stagflation, real economy, financial expansion, employed people