유럽연합의 미래

The Future of the EU

연구공간 자유 (www.TheInstituteForLiberty.com)

The Future of the EUThe

The Future of the European Union

: A More Integrated EU with improved Euro or a Less Integrated EU without Euro 

Sang Hyuck LEE 

(Ph.D. in Internatonal Law / Texas MBA)

(sanghyuckleephd@gmail.com)

   On June 23, 2016, not only the people of the UK but also all the peoples around the world were surprised by and, in some cases, feared at the outcome of the UK referendum over the issue of Brexit—Leave 51.9% vs. Remain 48.1%.[1] However, some people emphatically highlight the strength/resilience of the European Union (EU) and intentionally devaluate the meaning of Brexit, pointing out UK’s long tradition of ‘splendid isolation’—the foreign policy of Britain not to entangle itself with other countries in the European continent.[2] Nevertheless, Brexit was undeniably the most important step back from the 6-decades-long campaigns for European integration or the EU: a political and economic entity which represents a unique form of cooperation among 28 sovereign states.[3]

[Source: Statista (2016)]

   Then, what would be the future of the EU? Considering the very political reason why the idea of European integration was initially conceived, it seems to be nearly impossible to disintegrate the EU and return to the status quo ante featured by wars and conflicts among European states before World War II. The history of European integration started with a peace proposal—i.e. the 1950 Shuman Declaration—of Robert Schuman, former French Foreign Minister, to place Franco-German production of coal and steel under one common high authority, later named as the ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community). Theoretically, this was based on a liberal theory—i.e. functionalism or neo-functionalism, which focuses on the spill-over effects of coexistence and peace in the political field caused by increasing exchanges and cooperation in non-political/functional fields.[4]

[Robert Schuman (1886-1963)]

   In addition, it seems to be impossible for European people to give up the economic prosperity and stability generated by the EU. From the perspective of economic regionalism, the EU—to be more accurate, the EC—is a single market which is an economic entity at the highest level of regional economic integration compared with FTAs (free trade agreements, e.g. NAFTA), CUs (customs unions, e.g. ASEAN) and CMs (common markets, e.g. MERCOSUR). Despite some arguable discontents over the issue of fair distribution, theoretically and empirically, it is self-evident that the European single market based on four freedoms—i.e. free movements of goods, people, services and capital—has brought economic growth and prosperity to European people.[5]

[Source: Getty Images]

   However, the current problems primarily caused by the single currency ‘euro’ must be assessed carefully. Historically, the establishment of Eurozone in 1999 was not only an economic project for prosperity but also a political project for integration and consequently peace. In reality, euro failed to achieve either of the two goals of prosperity and integration. A single currency means a fixed exchange rate and a single interest rate within the Eurozone composed of 19 member states. Given the economic diversity and disparity among those European countries (e.g. German vs. Greece), not only the single currency euro but also a set of institutions in charge of addressing such diversity and disparity problems should be established. However, European people failed to create such institutions.[6]

   In this context, there may be two plausible scenarios on the future of the EU: (1) a more integrated EU with improved euro, or (2) a less integrated EU without euro. In order to enjoy peace and prosperity even in the future, European people must decide whether to find a solution—i.e. establishing institutions to address the problems caused by diversity and disparity among European countries or to eliminate the root itself—i.e. euro—of these problems. In any case, the bottom line is this. Not only European people but also all the people around the world must remember the following historical facts: “The EU is one of the big success stories of international politics. This integration of sovereign nation-states is unprecedented in modern times and has formed the basis of the peace and prosperity of Europe.”[7]

          

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[1] BBC World News, “EU Referendum Results: UK Votes to Leave the EU” (June 23, 2017), 

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results (accessed June 2020). 

[2] Parikshit Ghosh, “Life after Brexit: What Awaits Britain in Its Splendid Isolation” The Quint (June 25, 2016), https://www.thequint.com/brexit/2016/06/25/life-after-brexit-what-awaits-britain-in-its-splendid-isolation (accessed June 2020). 

[3] Kristin Archick, “The European Union: Questions and Answers” (January 19, 2016), 

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21372.pdf (accessed June 2020). 

[4] Alice-Catherine Carls and Megan Naughton, “Functionalism and Federalism in the European Union” The Public Justice Report (2002), https://www.cpjustice.org/public/page/content/functionalism_and_federalism_e (accessed June 2020). 

[5] Emily Cadman and Gemma Tetlow, “The EU Single Market: How It Works and the Benefits It Offers” The Financial Times (July 1, 2016), https://www.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e (accessed June 2020). 

[6] Joseph E. Stiglitz, “The Problem with Europe is the Euro” The Guardian (August 10, 2016), 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro (accessed June 2020). 

[7] Kathleen R. McNamara, “The Eurocrisis and the Uncertain Future of European Integration” in The Council on Foreign Relations, Crisis in the Eurozone: Transatlantic Perspective (2010).