추경호‘5월저점’실패무역적자커져IMF1.4%성장률하락

Kyong-ho Choo failed to hit the low in M

추경호 ‘5월저점’ 실패 무역적자 커져 IMF 1.4% ADB 1.3% 성장률 하락

7월에 반도체 수출과 중국 수출 감소가 치명타가 되면서 추경호 부총리의 ‘5월 저점’ 경기부양이 실패를 보이고 IMF가 1.4%로 올해 경제성장률 전망치를 낮추고 ADB는 1.3%로 하향 조정했다.

관세청의 이달 1~20일 수출액 312억3300만달러는 전년동기대비 15.2% 감소이고, 반도체 수출이 35.4% 급감했다.

추경호 부총리는 5월 21일 국회 답변에서 "무역수지 적자가 지난 4월에 그나마 가장 작은 폭이었는데 5월에는 작년 기저효과 등으로 좋지 않을 것"이라며 "5월이 지나면 적자 폭이 개선되고 4분기에는 지금과 전혀 다른 모습의 대외실적을 확인할 수 있을 것"이라고 말했다.

7월의 20일간 수출액 감소는 10개월째 연속이고 수입액이 325억9400만달러에 무역적자는 13억6100만달러이다.

반도체 수출 감소는 지난해 8월 이후 11개월째이며, 수출 감소가 석유제품에서 48.7% 급감(전년동월대비), 철강제품(-15.2%), 무선통신기기(-13.5%) 등이 가세했다.

중국 수출 감소는 20일까지 전년동월대비 21.2% 하락에 지난해 6월 이후 13개월째 지속이며, 무역적자가 지난해 10월부터 10개월 연속이다.

중국과의 무역 감소는 수출액과 수입액 합친 총 교역액이 이달 20일까지 12억1400만달러 적자이다.

대중 무역적자는 지난해 10월부터 지난달까지 9개월째 이어지고 있다.

국제통화기금(IMF)은 25일 올해 한국경제 성장률을 0.1%p 낮춰 1.4%로 하락시켰다.

IMF는 지난 4월 전망치를 1.7%에서 1.5%로 하락시켰고, 3개월 뒤인 이날 0.1%p 더 낮췄다.

IMF는 한국 성장률을 지난해 7월부터 2.9%에서 2.1%로 낮춘 뒤 10월 2.0%, 올해 1월 1.7% 등 5회 연속 성장률을 하향 조정했다.

경제성장률 하락은 경제협력개발기구(OECD) 1.5%, 한국은행 1.4%, 아시아개발은행(ADB) 1.3%까지 떨어뜨렸다.

추 부총리는 12일의 대한상의 기조연설에서 "하반기 성장률(1.8%)은 상반기(0.9%)보다 좋고, 내년에는 올해보다 1%포인트 이상 반등할 것"이라며 "수출 개선은 조금 더 시간이 걸리겠지만, 무역수지는 4분기에는 상당히 흑자를 보일 것"이라 밝혔다.

SK하이닉스는 2분기 매출액 7조3059억원, 영업손실 2조8821억원이라며 낸드에 대해 “5~10% 수준의 추가 감산 결정했다”고 26일 밝혔다.

SK하이닉스의 3개 분기 연속 마이너스에서 상반기 적자(1분기 영업손실 3조4023억원)가 6조3천억원 규모이다.

미국은 이날 추가 금리 인상으로 한국과 금리격차가 최대 2.0%로 벌어졌다. kimjc00@hanmail.net

Kyong-ho Choo failed to hit the low in May, and the trade deficit widened. IMF 1.4% ADB 1.3% growth rate decline

In July, as the decline in semiconductor exports and exports to China became a fatal blow, Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho's economic stimulus measures at the "low point in May" failed, and the IMF lowered this year's economic growth forecast to 1.4%, while the ADB lowered it to 1.3%.

The Korea Customs Service's exports from the 1st to the 20th of this month were $31.233 billion, down 15.2% from the same period last year, and semiconductor exports plummeted 35.4%.

In an answer to the National Assembly on May 21, Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho said, "The trade deficit was the smallest in April, but it will not be good in May due to the base effect of last year." You will be able to see a completely different external performance than now.”

The decrease in exports for the 20 days of July was the 10th consecutive month, with imports of 32.594 billion dollars and a trade deficit of 1.361 billion dollars.

The decrease in semiconductor exports is the 11th month since August last year, and the decrease in exports was 48.7% in petroleum products (compared to the same month last year), steel products (-15.2%), and wireless communication devices (-13.5%).

China's exports declined 21.2% year-on-year through the 20th, continuing for 13 months since June of last year, and the trade deficit has been 10 months in a row since October of last year.

As for the decrease in trade with China, the total amount of trade, the sum of exports and imports, is a deficit of $1.214 billion as of the 20th of this month.

The trade deficit with China has continued for 9 months from October of last year to last month.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered this year's economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4 percent on the 25th.

The IMF lowered its forecast from 1.7% to 1.5% in April, and lowered it by 0.1%p three months later.

The IMF lowered Korea's growth rate from 2.9% to 2.1% in July of last year, then lowered the growth rate for five consecutive times: 2.0% in October and 1.7% in January this year.

The economic growth rate fell to 1.5% for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 1.4% for the Bank of Korea, and 1.3% for the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

In a keynote speech at the Korea Chamber of Commerce on the 12th, Deputy Prime Minister Chu said, "The growth rate (1.8%) in the second half is better than the first half (0.9%), and next year it will rebound by more than 1 percentage point from this year." , the trade balance will show a significant surplus in the fourth quarter."

SK Hynix announced on the 26th that it had decided to “additionally cut production by 5-10%” for NAND flash, saying that it had sales of 7,305.9 billion won and an operating loss of 2,882.1 billion won in the second quarter.

SK Hynix's deficit in the first half of the year (3.4023 trillion won in operating loss in the first quarter) was 6.3 trillion won in the negative for three consecutive quarters.

The interest rate gap between the U.S. and Korea widened to a maximum of 2.0% as a result of an additional interest rate hike on the same day.

May Low, ADB, IMF, OECD, Economic Growth Rate, Exports to China, Trade Deficit, Semiconductor, Export Decrease, Kyong-ho Choo