Thucydides' Trap
Inevitiable & International Connotation
Histrocial Evidance beween Hegemonic StatesThucydides Trap is a key concept to understand hegemonic competition in the world history. Thucydides wrote Peloponnesian War, which was the relationship between the Athens, which was a rising power, and the Sparta, which was a risen power. Both countries were two of symbolic countries in Balkan peninsula, like in ancient times in China, for example Spring and Autumn period and Warring States era.
That is, Thucydides Trap is a representative knowledge for explaining how to struggle the powerful states in current era. So, Professor Graham Allison picked this concept to suggest the hegemonic rivalry in the 21st century between Washington and Beijing. Also, he researched other cases, in which antagonism with hegemonic status, included few nations already took a leadership in the global phase, such as Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, and China. The main connotation is the case study to the historic flow how many nations pursued their majorities, which is form UK to US, and from US to China, eventually, the most important question is “Can US and China make a war?”
Allison brings up an ancient concept and explains the present, which refers to the nature of the U.S.-China confrontation. For example, he has implemented the old saying that it is necessary to bring something new, and has already outlined the protocols and processes that can work in times of crisis based on the behavior of bureaucrats during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In response, the doctor presents several cases of struggle for hegemony in the historical context, comparing the case of war with the one that did not, giving an idea of a U.S.-China conflict. In reality, however, war is a heavy burden, as China's economic power has followed nearly 70 percent of the U.S. and the U.S. is also suffering from huge debts.
After all, the chances of a physical warfare between the two powers are extremely rare, and it is likely that the war will be fought by all means low. Many scholars and experts explain the relationship between the U.S. and China under the structure of the New Cold War, and the U.S.-China confrontation is accelerating and the difficulty is increasing under the crisis of the spread of coronavirus. In response, the U.S. is actively utilizing China's vulnerable areas - Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea - as diplomatic strategies, suggesting that China remains at a disadvantage in the international society. As the U.S. has already made clear its ranking due to tariff issues, the U.S. intends to consolidate its dominance by adding diplomatic issues and further dampen China's expectations.
If the Cold War was dominated by pure military clash, other than military force at this time of conflict between the U.S. and China. This is because they want to avoid the enormous burden of war and face the best results. Ultimately, it depends on the U.S. choice to exercise its best existing physical force, but the U.S. and China are already building hostile and symbiotic relations, and as long as the U.S. has brought China to the stage of globalization, the U.S. attack on China is likely to be an unnecessary option that will inevitably cause the U.S. to suffer huge economic losses as well.
Therefore, it is even more difficult to predict U.S.-China relations, and we have to wait and see. What is clear, however, is that the U.S. is building a thorough alliance - the recent mention of defense costs and tariffs on its allies is not the same as before, but the consensus is naturally set to keep China in contamination - on the other hand, China's relations with its neighbors have deteriorated, and it is doubtful who will join them when China is facing a crisis as it loses credibility. In other words, even if the U.S. is not as inclusive as before since the inauguration of the Trump administration, international opinion is still very unfavorable to China, considering China's international image before and after the spread of the COVID-19.
