기후변화 대응없인 평화와 안전 없다
[기후변화 WITH YOU] 기후변화, UN안보리에서 사상 첫 논의
파벨 카바트 WMO 책임 과학자가 UN안보리에서 연설하고 있다.[사진제공=WMO]세계기상기구(WMO)가 사상 처음으로 25일(현지 시간) UN안전보장이사회(안보리)에서 기후변화 문제를 역설하고 이를 위해 국제적 공조가 필요하다는 연설을 했습니다. 기후변화와 이와 연관돼 예상되는 재앙에 대한 내용이었습니다. 안보리는 평화와 안전유지를 위한 국제연합(UN)의 핵심 기구입니다. 25일 도미니카공화국이 의장국으로 주재한 안보리에서 기후변화 문제가 논의됐다는 것은 국제 평화와 안보에 버금갈 정도로 기후변화를 판단하고 있다는 방증입니다.
앞서 안토니오 구테레스(Antonio Guterres) 유엔사무총장은 다보스포럼에서 "기후변화는 우리가 생각했던 것보다 더 빠르게 진행되고 있다"고 말한 바 있습니다. 구테레스 사무총장의 이 같은 발언이 있은 하루 뒤 안보리에서 기후변화의 심각한 영향에 대해 WMO가 강조하고 나선 것입니다.
구테레스 사무총장은 "우리는 지금 그 대처방향에서 길을 잃고 있다"며 "(기후변화) 현실은 과학자들이 예상했던 것보다 더 나쁘고 모든 지표가 그것을 말해주고 있다"고 말했습니다. 세계경제포럼(World Economic Forum)은 ‘2019년 지구촌위험리포트’를 통해 지구촌을 위협하는 네 가지 요소로 기후변화를 포함해 ▲극심한 날씨 ▲자연 재해 ▲식수 위기 등을 꼽았습니다. 이 같은 위협 요소는 궁극적으로 평화와 안보, 지탱 가능한 개발을 방해하고 지구촌에 ‘쇼크’로 작용할 것이라고 진단했습니다.
파벨 카바트(Pavel Kabat) WMO 책임 과학자는 "기후변화를 아직도 애써 외면하려는 경향이 있다"며 "기후변화는 단지 날씨 변화가 아니라 안보에 영향을 미치고 식량안보, 산불발생은 물론 공기 질에도 악영향을 끼칠 것"이라고 지적했습니다. 나아가 "특정 나라 내부적으로 이주와 이동 등 심각한 문제가 뒤따를 것"이라고 경고했습니다.
WMO가 안보리에서 ‘극심한 날씨와 기후 이슈’에 대한 내용으로 연설하는 것은 공식적으로 이번이 처음입니다. 그만큼 안보리가 기후변화 대응에 적극 나서야 한다는 목소리를 촉구하고 있는 모습이기도 합니다. WMO 측은 이번 안보리 연설을 두고 "안보리가 기후변화를 평화와 안전에 심각한 영향을 줄 수 있다는 것을 인정한 것"이라고 해석했습니다. 기후변화는 정치에도 영향을 미칠 것으로 전망됩니다. 도미니카공화국의 경우 기후변화가 대통령 선거에서 가장 큰 이슈가 될 것이라고 WMO 측은 전망했습니다. 도미니카공화국은 다른 카리브 해 국가와 마찬가지로 해수면 상승과 극심한 날씨로 심각한 상황을 맞고 있습니다. 특히 최근 강력해지는 허리케인으로 인명은 물론 재산상 피해가 눈덩이처럼 커지고 있습니다.
2017년 지구촌 평균 이산화탄소 농도는 405.5PPM(parts per million)을 기록하고 있습니다. 영국 기상청 연구를 보면 온실가스 배출량은 이미 사상 최고치를 기록하면서 올해 더욱 증가할 것으로 내다봤습니다. 21세기 들어 지구온난화는 심각한 상황을 맞고 있습니다. WMO 측은 "현재 지구 평균 기온은 산업화 이전 시기보다 거의 1도 상승했다"고 설명했습니다.
카바트 WMO 책임과학자 등은 안보리 연설에서 북극 해빙이 녹으면서 전 세계적으로 해수면 상승이 예상된다고 경조했습니다. 이 때문에 도서국의 생존까지 위험하다고 진단했습니다. 궁극적으로는 해양 생물, 산호초 생태계는 물론 식량 안보까지 위협하고 있다고 분석했습니다.
카바트 책임 과학자는 안보리에서 "홍수, 가뭄, 열대성 저기압과 같은 극심한 날씨와 기후변화가 지탱 가능한 개발 목표의 진전을 방해하고 있다"고 강조한 뒤 "유엔 차원의 적극적 해법 모색이 중요하다"고 덧붙였습니다.
2018년 기후변화 주요이슈. 가뭄, 산불 등 극심한 날씨가 이어졌다.[자료제공=WMO]*표지사진은 그린란드 일루리샛에서 관찰된 오로라(Aurora)입니다.[사진제공=그린란드 일루리샛 자연유산]
◆다음은 파벨 카바트 WMO 책임 과학자 UN안보리 연설 전문
Prof Pavel Kabat, Chief Scientist World Meteorological Organization, briefing to the UN Security Council ministerial debate on: addressing the impacts of climate related disasters on International Peace and Security, New York, 25 January 2019.
Your Excellency Foreign Minister of the Dominican Republic Mr Miguel Vargas, honorable ministers, excellencies. I have the honor to brief you today on behalf of the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, the U.N. system’s authoritative voice on weather, climate and water. WMO has 192 Member States and Territories, with representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological services around the world.
The World Economic Forum taking place in Davos this week has just published its annual Global Risks Report 2019. It indicates that extreme weather, natural disasters, climate change and water crises are the top four on the list of existential threats of the global risk landscape. These show significant interconnections with other shocks and impacts to peace and security and sustainable development.
This survey highlights – yet again – the critical importance of WMO’s core business. And early warnings are at the heart of that business. Early warnings to prevent natural hazards becoming disasters. And early warnings about our changing climate, which were issued a full 40 years ago, at the First World Climate Conference, organized by WMO in 1979.
Global average greenhouse gas concentrations of CO2 reached 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017 and continue to rise to record levels in 2018-2019. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now. WMO’s provisional Statement on the State of the Climate in 2018 showed that the past four years have been the warmest on record, with many high impact weather events which bear the hallmarks of climate change. The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years. The global average temperature is nearly 1°C above the pre-industrial era.
The Special Report on 1.5°C of global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is co-sponsored by WMO and UNEP, showed very clearly the threats from increases in global temperatures
On extreme weather threats 2017 was the most impactful and costliest Atlantic Hurricane season in observable history with losses exceeding 282 Billion US dollars with significant social economic and GDP impacts to Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean from major Hurricanes such as Maria, Irma and Harvey. The World Bank estimates Dominica’s Islands total damages and losses from the hurricane Maria at US$ 1.3 billion or 224% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), About 99.7% of the season's damage was
due to three of the season's major hurricanes – Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Another notable hurricane, Nate, was the worst natural disaster in Costa Rican history. This season was also one of only six years on record to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes
In August 2018, the southwest Indian state of Kerala suffered the worst flooding since the 1920s, displacing more than 1.4 million people from their homes and affecting more than 5.4 million. Large parts of western Japan experienced destructive flooding in late June and early July, killing at least 230 people and destroying thousands of homes. Flooding affected many parts of east Africa in March and April. This included Kenya and Somalia, which had previously been suffering from severe drought, as well as Ethiopia and northern and central Tanzania. Out of the 17.7 million Internally Displaced Persons tracked by the IOM, 2.3 million people were displaced due to disasters linked to weather and climate events as of September 2018. In Somalia, some 642 000 new internal displacements were recorded between January and July 2018 by UNHCR, with flooding the primary reason for displacement (43%), followed by drought (29%), and conflict (26%).
Research by WMO and its partners and network of scientists shows that sea level rise is accelerating, as is the melting of polar ice sheets, posing an increasing existential threat to small island developing states. The shrinking of Arctic sea ice affects not just the local environment and indigenous peoples, but also influences weather patterns in the world’s populated regions. Glacier melt continues unchecked, with short-term impacts including increased flooding and a long-term threat to water supplies for many millions of people. Ocean heat content is also at record levels, with far reaching, lasting consequences for marine life, coral reefs and food security.
Climate change has a multitude of security impacts – rolling back the gains in nutrition and access to food; heightening the risk of wildfires and exacerbating air quality challenges; increasing the potential for water conflict; leading to more internal displacement and migration. It is increasingly regarded as a national security threat
Excellencies:
Today is the first time in history that WMO as UN Agency has officially briefed the UN Security Council in the Chamber on climate and extreme weather issues. We hope that this will foster closer collaboration and establishes mechanisms for future briefings between Security Council members and the UN system agencies including WMO. To provide authoritative information for decision making and support the diplomatic business of the council in areas appropriate to the understanding and analysis of peace and security threats
WMO is stepping up its support to the UN Operations and Crisis Center through a dedicated coordination officer at UN Headquarters to provide expert information and to assist UN leadership to make informed strategic decisions. This is vital given that extreme weather and climate, such as floods, drought and tropical cyclones are undercutting
progress in the sustainable development goals as we repeatedly see with tragic consequences.
WMO is committed to providing cutting-edge science to the UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit in September and to supporting Member States in evidence-based climate action. In order to meet the challenges and promote the international agenda, there is a need for a new political and investment paradigm to build a new generation of hydro-climate forecasting and early warning services. This should become an component of basic country-Infrastructure, comparable to roads and bridges.
WMO is honored to support Member States and the Security Council in the provision of top quality information on weather, climate, water and environmental-related threats to peace and security. We thank the Dominican Republic Presidency of the Security Council for organizing this debate and for the opportunity to address you in the chamber this morning.
