이것이 복잡계를 구분하는 Cynefin frame이다.
직지심공외전_조직해봄
20190619_조직해봄
복잡계기초 Cynefin frame
직지심공 외전
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복잡계라는 무엇인가? 오늘 우리는 댄 스노든의 연구를 바탕으로 4분면으로 구성된 커네핀 프레임워크를 살펴보자. 이를 통해서 오늘날 우리의 경영현장에 맞는 경영방식을 알아보자.
커네핀프레임워크는 4분면으로 구성되는데, 심플, 복잡화된, 복잡한, 카오스로 구성된다. 중요한 것은 커네핀프레임워크는 시스템에 대한 내용이다.
우리가 사는 사회는 모든 것이 시간위에서 계속 존재하는 한 시스템으로 이루어진다. 그리고 그것은 단순하지 않고 대부분은 복잡하다. 그리고 우리는 작은 시스템이든 복잡한 시스템이든 상위시스템과 하위시스템이 있다.
이러한 시스템간의 연결고리를 커네핀 프레임워크로 파악해볼 수 있다. 전체적인 흐름에서 이 프레임워크를 쓰는 이유는 센스메이킹을 하기 위한 것이다. 센스메이킹은 조직을 감지하는 단계에서 진행하는 것을 말한다.
Simple System
단순한 시스템으로서 원인과 결과가 명확한, 밝혀진 시스템이다. 이것은 ordered world라고 한다. 질서가 잡히고 알려진 세계이다. 원하는 결과를 어디가 매우 쉬워진다.
여기서는 보통은 category화하여 분류하면 시스템을 유지하기가 쉽다. 여기서는 최고의 실행을 설계해서 어프로치할 수 있다. 따라서 다른 좋은 대안들을 벤치마킹하면된다.
Complicated System
비교적 복잡한 시스템을 이야기한다. 전문적인 분석이 필요한 부분이다. Analysis로 다양한 원인과 다양한 결과를 비교해서 살펴볼 수 있다.
여기서는 좋은good 실행을 설계할 수 있다. 그렇기 때문에 그대로 가지고 오면 안되고 가지고와서 분석하고 그 중에 맞는 것들을 해보아야 한다.
Complex System
복잡한 시스템을 이야기한다. 이것은 전문적으로도 분석을 넘어서는 것이다. 오늘 되었다고 해서 내일 똑같은 결과가 나오지 않는다. 대부분의 조직문화나 조직관계는 여기에 속한다.
다양한 변수와 다양한 결과가 나온다. 따라서 여기서는 probe 된 것만 확인하고 운영할 수 있다. 여기서는 여러가지 실행결과들을 합쳐야 한다. 일단은 시도를 해보아야 한다. 흔히 말하는 파일럿을 해보아야 한다. 성과평가시스템, 조직문화가 여기에 포함된다.
Chaos System
무질서의 상태에서는 여러가지라고 할 수도 없는 너무 다양한 원인과 결과가 있다. 이것은 복잡성이 극대화된 상태이다. 따라서 여기서는 실제로 act해보는 것이다.
적용하기
새로운 툴이나 문제점들을 파악하는데 있어서 커네핀프레임워크를 사용해볼 수 있다. 우리가 다룰려는 것들이 복잡계인가? 그렇다면 센스메이킹에 있어서 probe한 접근을 해야하는 것이다.
또한 어떤 툴을 가지고올때 그것들이 4분면에서 어디에 있는지를 확인하고 그에 맞는 방법론을 취할수 있다. 새로운툴이 문제가 될때 커네핀프레임워크로 왜 그런지를 분석할 수 있다. 정책에 있어서 미래예측을 할 수 있다.
고민질문
시민단체가 사용하는 툴들은 대부분 기업용이다. 따라서 적용에 있어서 문제가 생긴다. 어떻게 진단하고 해결해볼까?
http://podbbang.com/ch/14900?e=22452278
https://youtu.be/N7oz366X0-8
What is The Cynefin Framework?
Have you heard about The Cynefin Framework? You may well ask ”What are you talking about and how to you even pronounced the word “Cynefin”?”
Cynefin (kun-ev-in) is the Welsh word for habitat. The Cynefin Framework is a conceptual framework which was developed out of IBM during the early 2000s and has been labelled as a “sense-making device”. This framework has continued to evolve through the work of Dave Snowden and The Cynefin Centre.
The central idea of the framework is to offer decision-makers a “sense of place” to view their perceptions in dealing with a situation or problem. Not all situations are equal, and this framework helps to define which response is required for a given situation or problem.
It is an excellent model to help categorise the situation and assists in setting out how we can approach these different situations, explaining the characteristics of each category to help us recognise and define the current situation.
Having a good solution to a problem is great, but applying it in the wrong situation or context can lead to outcomes that are more complicated or harmful.
Making use of the framework can help structure the approach to finding the correct solution that matches the conditions of the problem. Then our more traditional problem solving tools can be used for the appropriate categories.
“Different problem situations warrant different approaches to find the right solution,” Snowden surmises.
There are four categories in the Cynefin Framework; Obvious, Complicated, Complex and Chaotic. The fifth sector, Disorder, fills the centre of the categories.
The Five Categories of The Cynefin Framework
The Cynefin offer the opportunity to define any situation or problem into one of the five categories.
1. Obvious
Obvious (formerly known as Simple) is the category of Best Practices, and there is a direct relationship between cause and effect of the problem that can be seen by everyone. The right answer is obvious and undisputed within the group. This is the sector of best practices within your industry group.
Characteristics of the Obvious category are:
Clear cause and effect relationship are evident to everyone
A single, correct answer exists
A fact-based approach is required
The problem statement is understood, and solution is evident
Simple problem solving methods can be applied
The situation requires minimal expertise to resolve
2. Complicated
Complicated is the category where good practices can be found. Here there are multiple right answers, and expert diagnosis is required to figure them out. This sector demands a more quantitative approaches like Value Stream Mapping, and Six Sigma is particularly well suited.
Characteristics of the Complicated category:
Multiple right answers are available
A general idea of the known unknowns
You know the questions you need to answer
Don’t know how to obtain the answers
The problem is more predictable than unpredictable
Cause and Effect relationship is not immediately known but is discoverable given enough time
3. Complex
The complex is the category where solutions are discovered by developing a safe environment for experimentation. This experimentation allows us to discover important information that leads to the creation of new emergent solutions.
These problems are always more unpredictable than they are predictable. Hindsight can only tell us if there is a right answer as we explore the problem. Only with detailed experiments, inspections and results we can base decisions. The current results can then be used to define the next step toward a solution. In such situations our ability to probe (explore), sense (inspect) and respond (adapt) is critical.
Characteristics of the Complex category:
There are unknown unknowns
Even the starting point requires experimentation
The right questions to ask need exploration
The solution is only apparent once discovered
The sector of emergence ideas
Routine solutions don’t apply
Higher levels of interaction and communication are essential
4. Chaotic
Chaotic problems require a rapid response. When in a crisis there is immediate action required to prevent further harm and to return the situation to a normal environment. In this category we are not interested in starting investigations, data gathering and analysis work that leads to correcting the cause.
In this sector, the ability to act immediately and decisively to correct the symptoms is required, such as plugging the hole in hull of a sinking ship. For example, consider production defects; Your initial action is to quickly correct the problem creating the defect and then to contain the effects. This quick solution does not correct the underling cause, but containment is more important at this stage.
Characteristics of the Chaotic category:
The immediate priority is containment
The solution does not have to be the best, as response time is more important
Once you’ve stopped the leak, you can take a breath and determine which sector the problem fits into
Sector for novel solutions
No one knows what the answer may look like with certainty
Look for what works first instead of the right solution
Many decision to make, no time to think
Immediate action to reestablish order
5. Disorder
The disorder is the space in the middle. This category applies to those situations when you don’t know which of the other sectors to apply. This can be a very difficult place to be as you have no know idea how to sense the situation. Here you can see that people will be operating based on Firefighting mode, acting in line with personal preferences and not stopping to correct the situation.
The way to approach Disorder is to start breaking down the situation into smaller problems. Then reapply the problem to one of the four categories and work on a solution. Take the big rocks and make them into smaller rocks. Always be on the lookout for Chaotic problems as it is dangerous when problems are not addressed and there is no process is in place to correct it. Your priority needs to be to work on a way to move into a known category.
Characteristics of Disorder category:
If the problem or situation doesn’t fit in other the Four categories then it Disorder.
Fire fighting mode is common approach to dealing with the situation
Strong personal preferences are in place
No Time to correct the situation
Making do with a bad process
Defining Approaches with the The Cynefin Framework
The Cynefin Framework is a useful tool to help define a situation and to work out the best approach to finding the right solutions. Next we will look at different approaches that can be applied for each category.
Approach for Obvious problems:
Problems are well known
Sense the situation facts and gather data
Categorise facts it into known groups
Base responses on well-known solutions or established best practices
implement and review solutions
Approach for Complicated problems:
Assess the situation and Sense the problem
Investigate several options
Analyse large data groups, as needed
Use experts knowledge to gain insight
Use metrics to gain control
Base response on good practice and
Determine a course of action
Execute the plan, following the
Approach for Complex problems:
Explore to learn about the problem, as they require more creativity and innovative thinking skills
Develop a theory and experiment to gather more knowledge
Experimentation to discover patterns and gain more knowledge
Repeat as necessary, with the goal of moving your problem into the another category
Execute and evaluate, following the
Approach for Chaotic problems:
Someone needs to take charge and act
Triage all actions
Reach a level of measure of control
Then assess the situation and determine next steps
Take action to correct cause by moving your problem to another category
Approach for Disorder problems:
Gather more information
Define Knowns and Unknowns
Divide into parts and progressive move each part into another category
Focus on the activity and not the person
Summing up The Cynefin Framework
The Cynefin Framework is an excellent model to assist in setting out how we can approach these different situations and also explains the characteristics to help us recognise the current situation. Once the situation is defined, the appropriate problem solving approaches can be used.
This framework isn’t just useful in the domain of consultants and senior management types. As a general model it is easily applied to all levels of your organisation and with this simple approach, great insights can be gain when applied. So when the correct approach is matched to the corresponding situation a higher level success can be achieved.
Reference: Snowden and Mary E. Boone 2007 Harvard Business Review “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making.”
